Just as Rocky Balboa was a huge longshot against Apollo Creed in their first fight, the movie “Rocky” overcame tremendous odds to win the Oscar for Best Picture of 1976, besting such classics as “All the President’s Men”, “Network” and “Taxi Driver”. Of course, nobody was posting odds (for entertainment purposes or for real wagering) on the Oscars back in the day — but if anyone *had* been handicapping that race, “Rocky” would have been a decided underdog. After Jack Nicholson announced “Rocky” as the winner at the 1977 Academy Awards, the crowd exploded, and the producers dragged Sylvester Stallone onstage to share in the moment. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUrSr6Ga6i0" class="embedly-card" data-card-width="100%" data-card-controls="0">Embedded content: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUrSr6Ga6i0</a> His film was at least a 10-1 shot. Cut to 2020, in which [betting on the Oscars](https://www.betchicago.com/oscars-odds-2020-joker-once-upon-in-hollywood-key-categories) in America is becoming a real thing — and it’s easy to envision that as just the tip of the entertainment-based wagering iceberg. Imagine the day, in the near future, when you can bet on everything from the winner of “The Bachelor” to the champion on “Dancing With the Stars”! In the meantime, let’s focus on the upcoming Academy Awards. No doubt you’re seeing the same odds in all the major categories on site after site — but with all due respect to those handicappers, I may be the only person on the planet who has spent 25+ years as a nationally syndicated film critic and Oscar insider, AND 25+ years writing about gambling, including [my book](https://www.amazon.com/Bet-House-Gambled-Sports-Chance/dp/1569762473) Bet the House, so I’d like to think I can provide unique, exclusive odds and insights about Sunday night’s Oscars (8 p.m. ET/7 p.m. CT, ABC). Here are MY odds in each of the major categories, with some tips for a couple of possible upsets — and a “cheat sheet” to help you win your Oscar ballot pool. ## BEST PICTURE “1917”: -150 “Once Upon a Time In Hollywood”: 5/1 “Parasite”: 7/1 “Joker”: 8/1 The remaining field: 100/1 None of the other five nominated pictures (“Ford v Ferrari”, “The Irishman”, “Jojo Rabbit”, “Little Women”, “Marriage Story”) has a chance. However, “1917” isn’t the lock some oddsmakers are claiming it to be, and “Parasite,” though supposedly gaining momentum, will win for “Best International Film” and *not* for Best Picture. Hollywood *loves* films about Hollywood. I love “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” as a medium-odds pick. ## BEST ACTOR Guys, I can’t argue with the obvious choice of Joaquin Phoenix — but if you bet on Phoenix at something like -2500, that’s as crazy as the Joker himself. Leonardo DiCaprio has no chance only because he just won Best Actor a few years back for “The Revenant.” Jonathan Pryce is the classic example of the Academy honoring an actor with just the nomination. That leaves us with two reasonable upset possibilities. Remember how we just talked about how Hollywood loves itself? Adam Driver plays a director/writer divorcing an actress in “Marriage Story.” Imagine how many Academy voters can relate to that! And then there’s Antonio Banderas, playing a movie director (again, this industry loves itself) in “Pain & Glory”. If you can find Adam at 10/1 odds and/or Antonio at 50/1, go for it. ## BEST ACTRESS The betting market consensus has Renee Zellweger at -2500 for “Judy.” Yes, she’ll probably win, but those odds are insane. I’d put her at -900. Again, we have the recurring theme of the Academy loving movies about performers — but “Judy” was a box office disappointment and garnered no other major nominations. Also, Zellweger already has an Oscar win, albeit for a supporting performance. There’s no overriding feeling she’s been snubbed through the years. I’d put Scarlett Johansson at 7/1 for “Jojo Rabbit” and Saoirse Ronan at 20/1 for “Little Women”. If you can get better odds than that, take ‘em. ## BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR I want Brad Pitt to win for Best Supporting Actor. Brad Pitt *should* win for Best Supporting Actor. There’s no point in betting on Pitt as a 1/25 slam dunk. Given Joe Pesci, Al Pacino, Tom Hanks and Anthony Hopkins have already won acting Oscars, whereas Pitt hasn’t, I can’t in good conscience advise you taking a chance on an upset. Sometimes it’s best to just sit one out. ## BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Gather ‘round kids, for this is the category that has historically delivered on the best chance for an upset. At the 1998 Oscars, the legendary Lauren Bacall (“The Mirror Has Two Faces”) was stunned when she lost out to Juliette Binoche (“The English Patient”). Marisa Tomei’s win for “My Cousin Vinny” in 1993 was so unexpected it gave rise to unfounded and cruel conspiracy theories that her name had been read in error. This year, Laura Dern is the prohibitive favorite for her role in “Marriage Story” at -1500 consensus odds. I love Laura Dern. I loved her in “Marriage Story.” And she might well win the Oscar — as a reward for her work in this film, and “Little Women” and “Big Little Lies” and the most recent “Star Wars” movie. It’s a cumulative effect. But let’s take a look at Scarlett Johansson, the first double acting nominee since Cate Blanchett in 2007. If you can get 25/1 on Scarlett here, and something approaching 10/1 on Scarlett in the Best Actress category, that’s a pretty good double-chance wager, yes? ## OSCAR BALLOT POOL PICKS When filling out your Oscar ballot pool, always remember each of your 24 picks carries the same weight, i.e., your picks for Best Picture and Best Actor count exactly as much as your selections for Best Makeup, Best Animated Short, etc. With that in mind, here are my picks in all 24 categories: Best director: Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite” Adapted screenplay: “Little Women” Original screenplay: “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” Cinematography: “1917” Costume Design: “Little Women” Editing: “Ford v Ferrari” Makeup and hairstyling: “Bombshell” Original score: “1917” Original Song: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from “Rocketman” Production design: “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” Sound editing: “1917” Sound mixing: “1917” Visual effects: “Avengers: Endgame” Animated feature: “Toy Story 4” Documentary: “American Factory” International film: “Parasite” Animated short: “Hair Love” Documentary short: “Learning to Skateboard" Live action short: “A Sister” Best Picture: “1917” Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix Best Actress: Renee Zellweger Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt Supporting Actress: Laura Dern __Check out__: [BetIndiana News](http://betindiananews.com/)