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NFL

AFC East offseason snapshot: Patriots are NFL’s heaviest division favorite

AFC East offseason snapshot: Patriots are NFL’s heaviest division favorite

It's no surprise that the New England Patriots are overwhelming 1/5 favorites at Las Vegas sportsbooks to win it this year, the shortest odds of any division favorite.

Bill Williamson
Staff Writer
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@BWilliamsonNFL
Bill Williamson has 29 years of sports journalism experience. He has covered the NFL for the past 22 seasons. Follow him on Twitter @BWilliamsonNFL
The defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots have won an NFL-record 10 straight AFC East division titles. So it's no surprise that the Pats are overwhelming 1/5 favorites at Las Vegas sportsbooks to win it this year, the shortest odds of any division favorite. New England opened as a 1/7 favorite at Westgate in March, though the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills gained some respect among the bettting market, too. The Jets, who went 4-12 in 2018, are 5/1 to win the division after signing several players, most notably star [running back](https://www.sbnation.com/2019/3/13/18240383/leveon-bell-jets-free-agency-contract-steelers-no-doy) Le’Veon Bell. New York opened at 6/1. The Bills have seen the biggest adjustment in their favor, moving from 12/1 to 8/1 to win the division. I buy that adjustment. Buffalo may have been the most improved team in the NFL. The Dolphins opened as the division longshots and have gotten even longer. Miami opened at 40/1 in March and are currently 80/1 to win the division with a new coach and quarterback controversy ahead of camp. __NFL division previews:__ [AFC North](https://www.betchicago.com/afc-north-offseason-betting-browns-steelers-ravens-bengals) ## AFC East 2019 futures odds and win totals *Westgate, as of June 23, 2019* ## New England Patriots 2018 records: 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 5-11 O/U Odds to win Super Bowl 54: 6/1 (opened 10/1) Odds to win AFC: 3/1 (opened 4/1) Odds to win AFC North: 1/5 (opened 1/7) 2019 season win total: 11 OVER -140 (opened at -130) Odds to make playoffs: Yes -900, No +600 (no change since opener) __Quick take:__ Tom Brady and co. will have to adjust their passing game without retired tight end Rob Gronkowski. Also, 2018 first-round pick Sony Michel is [dealing](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/patriots-sony-michel-reportedly-undergoes-knee-scope-but-is-expected-to-be-ready-for-training-camp/) with a knee injury. So this offense may be not as strong as it has been in past years. We should know if the Patriots are ready to extend their division championship streak by late October. Key betting games come in Week 4 at Buffalo and Week 7 at the Jets. In the Westgate’s Game of the Year odds, the Patriots are -6.5 against the Bills and the -5.5 against the Jets. If New England covers those lines, it will be an indication that the Pats are kings of this division once again. __NFL division odds:__ [Which teams could go worst to first in 2019?](https://www.betchicago.com/nfl-division-odds-2019-worst-first) ## New York Jets 2018 records: 4-12 SU, 5-10-1 ATS, 10-6 O/U Odds to win Super Bowl 54: 80/1 (opened 100/1) Odds to win AFC: 40/1 (no change from opener) Odds to win AFC North: 5/1 (opened 6/1) 2019 season win total: 7.5 OVER -110 (no change since opener) Odds to make playoffs: Yes +325, No -425 (Yes opened +300) __Quick take:__ Expect the Jets to be a strong OVER team again. It all revolves around second-year quarterback Sam Darnold, who is [expected](https://www.newyorkjets.com/video/nfl-analysts-adam-gase-is-really-going-to-improve-sam-darnold) to take a big jump under offensive specialist Adam Gase. The presence of Bell and an upgraded offensive line should help Darnold, as well. The Jets averaged 20.6 points a game in 2018, and improvement by Darnold (75 to win MVP at Caesars) with the upgrades around him should increase that number fairly significantly in 2019. For a team that won just four games last season, a 7.5-win total is pretty steep, but it’s doable. There has been a lot of [inner turmoil](https://www.barstoolsports.com/boston/the-jets-deny-theyre-in-turmoil-which-means-the-jets-must-be-in-turmoil) reported within the Jets this offseason. If Gase can make a fast impact with this roster on the field, it won't matter. Still, doubling their win total may be a lot to ask for from any team. __MORE:__ [Why the New York Jets are a solid bet to make 2019 NFL playoffs](https://www.betchicago.com/new-york-jets-solid-playoff-bet-nfl) ## Buffalo Bills 2018 records: 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS, 7-9 O/U Odds to win Super Bowl 54: 100/1 (so change since opener) Odds to win AFC: 50/1 (no change since opener) Odds to win AFC North: 8/1 (opened 12/1) 2019 season win total: 7 OVER -130 (opened at 6.5, -160 ) Odds to make playoffs: Yes +425, No -600 (Yes opened (+500) __Quick take:__ The Bills are the value team to bet in this division. Their 100/1 Super Bowl 54 odds are tempting as a longshot bet. This team is talented and it upgraded at several positions. Buffalo bettors have to hope second-year quarterback Josh Allen takes a big leap. Allen, 150/1 to win MVP, had his typical rookie pratfalls, but he was feisty and seems like he’s a quarterback his teammates could rally around. Buffalo centered its offseason around him much like the Jets did with Darnold. If the light turns on, the win total and playoff prop bets for Buffalo are very attainable. __NFL 2019 playoff prop bets:__ [Bills among non-playoff teams from 2018 to consider](https://www.betchicago.com/nfl-2019-playoff-props-three-non-playoff-teams-2018-to-consider) ## Miami Dolphins 2018 records: 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS, 8-8 O/U Odds to win Super Bowl 54: 150/1 (opened at 250/1) Odds to win AFC: 150/1 (opened at 250/1) Odds to win AFC North: 80/1 (opened 40/1) 2019 season win total: 5 OVER EV (no change since opener) Odds to make playoffs: Yes +1100, No, -2500 (no change from opener) __Quick take:__ Bettors clearly aren’t impressed by the [trade](http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001028416/article/cardinals-trade-qb-josh-rosen-to-dolphins-for-picks) for quarterback Josh Rosen during the draft. Rosen was awful as a rookie on a bad Arizona team in 2018. The same is expected by bettors on a bad Mami team, which has seen its odds lengthen since the deal. This is a may be a good UNDER team in 2019. Rosen will likely struggle and the Dolphins don’t have much on offense. New coach Brian Flores, the former New England defensive coordinator, should help the defense improve after allowing 27.1 points per game in 2018. But Miami will likely be challenged to put up points consistently. __More:__ [NFL betting coverage](https://www.betchicago.com/nfl-betting)
2019-06-24T01:02:28.107Z2019-06-23T21:00-04:00
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