The Super Bowl of stock car racing is quickly approaching with Sunday's Daytona 500 (2:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. CT, FOX). The kickoff to the NASCAR season is exciting and sometimes frustrating for bettors due to the high attrition rate of superspeedway racing, but few other tracks give longshots a better chance to win than Daytona's high banks. Denny Hamlin won The Great American Race last season at 12/1, while Austin Dillon cashed 40/1 tickets in 2018. Already during Speedweeks, Erik Jones cashed at 20/1 to win Sunday's exhibition Busch Clash. Hamlin is among four drivers with the shortest odds to win the 500 at the Westgate SuperBook with 10/1 odds along with Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch. In any other given week about 12-14 drivers have a realistic chance of winning a Cup Series race, but due to the high speed, pack racing and volatile nature of Daytona, even the small, underfunded teams can win if -- big if -- they can avoid damage in wrecks that can take out 10 cars at a time. While a certain amount of luck is involved, with the help of driver stats, recent trends, and insight from a NASCAR oddsmaker we can create a betting strategy to narrow the field to a list of several legit contenders. Before we get into the starting lineup, key stats and bets to consider, BetChicago spoke to Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk management Ed Salmons to understand how his sharpest bettors are approaching The Great American Race. __NASCAR title odds:__ [Offseason team moves impacting futures market](https://www.betchicago.com/2020-nascar-title-odds-drivers-changes) ## Daytona 500 betting report and strategy Salmons has been betting on NASCAR for over two decades and emphasized the volatile nature of the Daytona 500 has him shying away from laying -110 in a head-to-head betting matchup and instead focusing on the outright market. "I never seem to have any luck betting matchups in these (superspeedway) races, there’s just too many wrecks," Salmons said. "I haven’t bet matchups in these races personally for several years since Tony Stewart and Kurt Busch wrecked each other from the lead (in the 2007 race). There are people that do bet matchups simply off value, but I don’t like doing it anymore." Salmons says his sharp bettors at the Westgate also tone it back for races at the superspeedways of Daytona and Talladega. "Given the nature of the race, they don’t nearly bet anything close to the limits in these kind of races," Salmons said. "Sure, you’ll have the arbitrage guys, but it’s generally $300 to $500 bets on this stuff. "We had a guy come in and bet Tyler Reddick for $400 at 60/1, another bet $300 on Ross Chastain at 200/1. The public has come in on Jimmie Johnson (at 25/1) just because it is his final Daytona 500." Salmons says early money on Brad Keselowski at 10/1 has since dried up, but Team Penske appears to have what it takes to lead Ford on Sunday. "Joey Logano looks great and won the first duel (on Thursday)," Salmons said. "The Fords look so much faster, but the teams have all learned you have to work together to get any edge. If the caution falls at the end, anything goes. But if it's a caution-free race the Fords should dominate." __NASCAR betting review:__ [A dive into handicapping the sport from all angles](https://www.betchicago.com/how-to-bet-nascar-2019-stats-news) ## 2020 Daytona 500 odds, starting lineup It has been 20 years since the pole-winner won the Daytona 500 (Dale Jarrett), which is not a good trend for this year's pole-sitter Ricky Stenhouse Jr (30/1). Furthermore, the last top-five finish in the race for a pole-winner was Bill Elliott back in 2001 when he finished fifth. "It’s Daytona, if you watch this stuff long enough you know you can start the car in last or first, it doesn’t matter," Salmons said. "The guys that start up front will probably drop on purpose to get in-line with their teammates or to stay out of trouble until crunch time. All the manufactures are going to have a game plan on when to pit, how to draft, etc." Historically speaking, the starting lineup has played a role with 16 of the 61 Daytona 500s having been won from the front row and 87% won from a top-15 starting position. <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table { font-size: 12px; border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; } .tableizer-table td { padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #CCC; } .tableizer-table th { background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold; } </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <thead><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Position</th><th>Driver</th><th>Odds</th></tr></thead><tbody> <tr><td>1</td><td>Ricky Stenhouse Jr.</td><td>30/1</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Alex Bowman</td><td>25/1</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Joey Logano</td><td>10/1</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>William Byron</td><td>20/1</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Aric Almirola</td><td>25/1</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Jimmie Johnson</td><td>25/1</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Ryan Newman</td><td>30/1</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Kyle Larson</td><td>30/1</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Brad Keselowski</td><td>10/1</td></tr> <tr><td>10</td><td>Kevin Harvick</td><td>12/1</td></tr> <tr><td>11</td><td>Bubba Wallace</td><td>60/1</td></tr> <tr><td>12</td><td>Cole Custer</td><td>60/1</td></tr> <tr><td>13</td><td>Austin Dillon</td><td>30/1</td></tr> <tr><td>14</td><td>Erik Jones</td><td>30/1</td></tr> <tr><td>15</td><td>Martin Truex Jr.</td><td>14/1</td></tr> <tr><td>16</td><td>Matt DiBenedetto</td><td>25/1</td></tr> <tr><td>17</td><td>Christopher Bell</td><td>60/1</td></tr> <tr><td>18</td><td>Kurt Busch</td><td>20/1</td></tr> <tr><td>19</td><td>Chris Buescher</td><td>60/1</td></tr> <tr><td>20</td><td>Ross Chastain</td><td>60/1</td></tr> <tr><td>21</td><td>Denny Hamlin</td><td>10/1</td></tr> <tr><td>22</td><td>Tyler Reddick</td><td>40/1</td></tr> <tr><td>23</td><td>John H Nemechek</td><td>100/1</td></tr> <tr><td>24</td><td>Ty Dillon</td><td>60/1</td></tr> <tr><td>25</td><td>Chase Elliott</td><td>14/1</td></tr> <tr><td>26</td><td>Michael McDowell</td><td>80/1</td></tr> <tr><td>27</td><td>Ryan Blaney </td><td>16/1</td></tr> <tr><td>28</td><td>Kyle Busch</td><td>10/1</td></tr> <tr><td>29</td><td>Clint Bowyer</td><td>25/1</td></tr> <tr><td>30</td><td>David Ragan</td><td>40/1 "Field"</td></tr> <tr><td>31</td><td>Ryan Preece</td><td>80/1</td></tr> <tr><td>32</td><td>Timmy Hill</td><td>40/1 "Field"</td></tr> <tr><td>33</td><td>Justin Haley</td><td>40/1 "Field"</td></tr> <tr><td>34</td><td>Brennan Poole</td><td>40/1 "Field"</td></tr> <tr><td>35</td><td>Quin Houff</td><td>40/1 "Field"</td></tr> <tr><td>36</td><td>Corey LaJoie </td><td>40/1 "Field"</td></tr> <tr><td>37</td><td>Joey Gase</td><td>40/1 "Field"</td></tr> <tr><td>38</td><td>BJ McLeod</td><td>40/1 "Field"</td></tr> <tr><td>39</td><td>Brendan Gaughan</td><td>40/1 "Field"</td></tr> <tr><td>40</td><td>Reed Sorenson</td><td>40/1 "Field"</td></tr> </tbody></table> __Note:__ Ryan Blaney and Corey LaJoie will start in the rear of the field in a backup car, but they will be scored from their starting positions (27th and 36th). ## Daytona 500 key stats How the top drivers have fared at Daytona since 2005 vs. the past four races at the track. <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table { font-size: 12px; border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; } .tableizer-table td { padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #CCC; } .tableizer-table th { background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold; } </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <thead><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Rank</th><th>Key Stat</th><th>Since 2005</th><th>Past 4</th></tr></thead><tbody> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>Driver Rating</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Ky Busch</td><td>91.2</td><td>77.5</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Hamlin</td><td>87.8</td><td>80.4</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Johnson</td><td>87.2</td><td>84.3</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Ku Busch</td><td>87.1</td><td>68.8</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Logano</td><td>87</td><td>89.8</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>Avg. Running Pos.</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Blaney</td><td>14.1</td><td>14.5</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Ky Busch</td><td>14.2</td><td>17.5</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Johnson</td><td>14.9</td><td>17.7</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Hamlin</td><td>14.9</td><td>17.5</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Byron</td><td>15.8</td><td>15.8</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>Laps in Top 15 %</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Ky Busch</td><td>64%</td><td>51%</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Johnson</td><td>61%</td><td>49%</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Ku Busch</td><td>59%</td><td>43%</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Hamlin</td><td>58%</td><td>54%</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Harvick</td><td>50%</td><td>60%</td></tr> </tbody></table> __MORE:__ [Click here for a full stats breakdown for the Daytona 500](https://www.scribd.com/document/447083160/Daytona-02102020) ## Daytona 500 trends, recent winners • A driver has won back-to-back Daytona 500s just three times - Richard Petty (1973-74), Cale Yarborough (1983-84) and Sterling Marlin (1994-95). Denny Hamlin (10/1) is looking to become the fourth. • Hamlin (13.2) has the best average finish among active drivers with more than one start in the 500. • Six times in history the winner of the Busch Clash at Daytona has gone on to win the Daytona 500 the following weekend. Erik Jones (30/1) is looking to become the seventh. • Martin Truex Jr. (15) leads all active drivers with the most Daytona 500 starts without a win. • Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch lead all active drivers in Daytona 500 top-10 finishes with eight each. • Over the past 10 Daytona 500s, only Denny Hamlin in 2016 had odds shorter than 10/1. Currently, there are four drivers listed at 10/1 at the Westgate. __Recent Daytona 500 winners__ 2019 Denny Hamlin 2018 Austin Dillon 2017 Kurt Busch 2016 Denny Hamlin 2015 Joey Logano 2014 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2013 Jimmie Johnson 2012 Matt Kenseth 2011 Trevor Bayne 2010 Jamie McMurray 2009 Matt Kenseth 2008 Ryan Newman 2007 Kevin Harvick 2006 Jimmie Johnson ## 2020 Daytona 500 bets to consider __Aric Almirola 25/1__ Almirola was a half-lap away from winning the 2018 Daytona 500, but was wrecked from the lead in overtime by eventual winner Austin Dillon. Since his move to Stewart-Haas Racing, Almirola has shown promise on the superspeedways and it's a truism evidenced by his work with Joey Logano in Thursday's Duel. Almirola pushed Logano to the front in the draft several times en route to a second-place finish and the duo will be starting in line together on Sunday. Almirola has the veteran poise, Ford power, fast alliances and solid value at 25/1. __Erik Jones 30/1__ I bet Jones to win the 500 before Sunday's Clash and while his odds have shortened to 30/1, he's still got great value considering his Joe Gibbs Racing team remains the best foursome in NASCAR. Expect the team to get together throughout the race and work their way to the front. Jones had the fastest lap average of all Toyotas and second overall in Practice No. 1, leading for eight laps in Thursday's duel. He has won the July Daytona race, Busch Clash and is a solid bet to win the 500. __Cole Custer 60/1__ For drivers in the 50/1 to 60/1 range, no driver is a part of a faster, more funded team than Custer in the No. 41 Stewart-Haas Ford. Custer was fifth in the duel and posted the fastest lap averages among all Ford drivers in [Practices No. 1 and No. 2](https://www.nascar.com/results/race_center/2020/nascar-cup-series/daytona-500/stn/practice2/). The issue with Custer is that he is a Cup Series rookie. While that makes him hard to trust, he has raced at Daytona and Talladega a combined 11 times in the Xfinity and Truck Series, so it's not like he is a complete newbie. At 60/1 there is too much upside to leave Custer off the betting card. __Bookmark us:__ [Weekly NASCAR betting previews of each race](https://www.betchicago.com/nascar-betting)