Bet Chicago Logo
  • NFL6AxA8ZrrIkUCay6Iekgs6k

    NFL news, odds, lines and wagering analysis

  • College FootballbW88wLUtXMeaeEOikGsU4

    College Football Betting

  • NBA6u9BKVTY2ckW2iOMgUiwyc

    NBA Betting Lines, Odds, Spreads and Wagering Analysis from BetChicago

  • NCAA BBgNg3S92MjCKu0CAOYwiWg

    NCAA Basketball Betting Lines, Odds, Spreads and Analysis

    • Home
    • News
    • Schedule
    • Futures
    • Standings
  • Podcasts2178mk1KlAoY7g2jH8KrMz

    Football betting podcasts

  • MLB5nf5uAz2yAo6IMAsckq8Qa

    MLB Betting Lines, Odds and Wagering and Fantasy Analysis

    • Home
    • News
    • Scoreboard
    • Schedule
    • Standings
    • Odds
  • Fantasy Football7BTPbPIdu8iaYiiE46IQok

    Fantasy Football Analysis

  • ...
    • Sports Betting Industry News5bPejKTlZeuEsG42oyeCGe

      Sports Betting Industry News

    • Betting Guides4NyqzWkxBQXcG58JmZBGxp

      Sports betting glossaries, tutorials on advanced metrics and more

    • Soccer7d0trXzol2uICOEoIqs0Ea

      Soccer Betting News

    • Golf7A0eylzER2uqQY2kcQqyWS

      Golf Betting

      • Home
      • News
      • Leaderboard
      • Schedule
      • World Rankings
      • Odds
    • NASCAR2nwagNnke8E0Q0kce2UI2M

      NASCAR Betting News, Information and Insight

    • Horse Racing1cG3403troWKYKqu8yAMuE

      Horse Racing News, Odds and Picks

    • UFC2FbKCPn5duoQeCMGMYgKEo

      UFC and MMA Betting

    • BoxingO0rvFyckMMMiG6eYKGaOc

      BetChicago Boxing Coverage

    • NHLrsDGYfODbqOaqYKaww4iq

      NHL Betting Lines, Odds and Analysis

    • Tennis4EpTm7Ht8sMK4g8CKwQCe0

      Tennis Odds and Betting Analysis

    • Entertainment4gzKSgVG64EI2yEU2CYGOY

      Entertainment Betting Lines, Odds and Analysis

    • Home1GbgAvLoZC4E44cMUg2YMe

      BetChicago - Illinois | Sports Betting News, Odds, Lines, & Contests

NCAA BB

Las Vegas oddsmaker discusses how 3-point line being moved back could impact college basketball totals

Las Vegas oddsmaker discusses how 3-point line being moved back could impact college basketball totals

The men's college basketball 3-point line will be pushed back next season, along with other changes that could affect how many points are scored. One Las Vegas oddsmaker is expecting a slight shift from the betting market.

Joe Rodgers
Senior Staff Writer
BetChicago
//images.ctfassets.net/p0ykbbcw3bn6/5QOE6sCfxCyoqoECOG02Gs/16e6d9468925584029b9ca7007244209/JRheadshot.jpg.png
3V5R3sbt5KUyq2yW0MqWKa
@RodgersBC
Joe Rodgers is a sports analyst specializing in betting odds and fantasy. He has spent time with Perform Group Media, earned a master's degree, and is even a certified pace car driver.
The NCAA Playing Rules Oversight Panel approved [several changes](https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2019-06-05/mens-college-basketball-3-point-line-extended-international) Wednesday that could impact how college basketball oddsmakers set totals for the upcoming season. The biggest change will be moving the 3-point line distance from 20 feet, 9 inches to the international basketball distance of 22-1 3/4. The change comes after the international 3-point distance was used experimentally in the 2018 and 2019 National Invitation Tournaments. The UNDER went 64-60 in NIT games the last two seasons and bettors early to the window in November could be expecting fewer points as players adjust. Oddsmakers are already looking into the changes. "I definitely think you have to adjust a couple points downward for the added distance," Caesars senior oddsmaker Matt Lindeman told BetChicago. "The last time they moved the line back, the national 3-point percent average dropped about 1%; teams average roughly 22 3-point attempts per game. If you assume 44 3-point attempts in a game, the expected made 3s in a game should go from roughly 14.5 to 14, giving you a 1.5-point adjustment -- potentially more since this is a bigger move back than the last time they moved the line." __MORE:__ [Illini's 2019-20 title odds move from 300/1 to 50/1](https://www.betchicago.com/college-basketball-futures-odds-illinois-liability-longshot) The last time the NCAA moved the 3-point line was before the 2008-09 season, when the distance went from 19-9 to 20-9. The percentage of 3-point shots made during that season compared with the previous season was 35.2 to 34.4. From a betting perspective, OVERs saw a slight increase, moreso early in the season as totals dropped. The OVER cashed at a rate of 49.4% in 2007-08, according to [SportsDatabase](https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=season%3D2008+and+month&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++), with an average total of 137.2. And with the added distance in 2008-09, OVERs cashed at 49.8% with an average total of 135.6. The percentage of made 3-point field goals steadily increased back to 35.2% by 2017-18, and the average total increased to 145.0. Teams are also attempting 3-pointers more than ever. Since the 2014-15 season, 3-point attempts as a percentage of teams' total field goals have increased from 32.9% to 38.7% this past season, [per KenPom](https://kenpom.com/trends.php). Teams in the 2019 NIT averaged 23.1 3-point attempts, according to the NCAA, compared with 22.8 in the 2018-19 regular season. The 3-point shooting percentage of teams in the 2019 NIT was 33%, compared with their regular season average of 35.2%, also per the NCAA. The average total in the 2019 NIT was 146.9 (UNDER went 32-30). While it's possible bookmakers adjust totals downward this upcoming season, another rule change could help increase scoring. With the goal of enhancing the pace of the game, the NCAA panel approved resetting the shot clock to 20 seconds (instead of a full 30) after an offensive rebound. This was an experimental rule in the 2019 NIT, as well. "Rule changes are fascinating because they can create a new market inefficiency if they’re not properly taken into account," Lindeman said. "I’m very curious to see what kind of effect they have in the early weeks and how the market reacts. "The shot clock reset very well could negate the decrease in 3-point shooting percentage. More possessions and a quicker pace should lead to a slight increase in scoring. It’s tough to say right now if this rule change will offset the increase in 3-point distance." The panel also approved a proposal where players will be assessed a technical foul should they use derogatory language about an opponent’s race, ethnicity, national origin, etc., and a rule that coaches will be allowed to call live-ball timeouts in the last two minutes of the second half and the last two minutes of any overtime periods. Previously, coaches weren’t allowed to call any live-ball timeouts during the game. __MORE:__ [Juwan Howard hire doesn’t help Michigan's NCAA title odds](https://www.betchicago.com/juwan-howard-hire-michigan-ncaa-title-odds)
2019-06-06T20:56:14.135Z2019-06-06T16:55-04:00
  • Las Vegas oddsmaker discusses how 3-point line being moved back could impact college basketball totals

    • Monday Night Football betting primer: Cousins, Vikings look to reverse poor prime-time records

    • Vikings vs. Seahawks props: Three plays to consider for Monday Night Football

    • UFC 241 prop bets: Alternate ways to bet Cormier, Miocic, Diaz and Pettis

    • Fantasy football Week 14 start ‘em, sit ‘em: Courtland Sutton emerges as every-week option

    • NFL SuperContest Week 13: Packers the consensus top pick for second straight week

    • Tour Championship updated odds: Brooks Koepka holds slim lead entering weekend

    • NFL Week 14 betting lines: Bears underdogs at home to middling Cowboys on Thursday night

    • Cowboys vs. Bears player props: A trio of bets to consider for TNF

    • 2019 conference championship odds: Wisconsin catching record points vs. Ohio State in Big Ten title tilt

    • Odds shorten on Ohio State, Clemson to win 2020 college football national championship

    • Bettors presented with historically low total as Purdue prepares to host No. 5 Virginia

    • Bears home underdogs for first time in a year hosting the Cowboys on Thursday night

    • NFL Week 14 teaser candidates: Opportunity knocking on this week’s card

    • Odds to win a golf major in 2020: Rickie Fowler, Tiger Woods each 5/1

    • The marvelous comeback story of jockey David Cohen

    • Week 13 NFL bad beats, betting upsets: Redskins, Dolphins win as double-digit dogs

    • 2019 Presidents Cup odds: Tiger Woods' United States team heavy favorite to continue dominance

    • Super Bowl 54 odds update: Seahawks, Packers move up betting board

    • Point spreads released for potential 2019-20 College Football Playoff matchups

    • Euro 2020 odds: Three Lions new betting favorites following group draw

    • SEC Championship Game betting: Sharps gobble up LSU early, public joins vs. banged-up Georgia

    • Public pounding overvalued Seahawks in clash with Rams on Sunday night

    • Cowboys vs. Bears player props: A trio of bets to consider for TNF

    • Big Ten championship betting preview: Sharps pounce on total for Wisconsin-Ohio State clash

    • Super Bowl 54 odds update: Seahawks, Packers move up betting board

    • Indiana, Butler facing short point spreads Tuesday to keep undefeated seasons alive

    • Hero World Challenge odds: Red-hot Rahm favored over Woods, Presidents Cup cohort in 18-man event

    • Odds shorten on Ohio State, Clemson to win 2020 college football national championship

    • Illinois tips off Big Ten/ACC Challenge as large betting favorite vs. Miami

    • NFL Week 13 sportsbook report, sharp action: Money on 49ers in possible Super Bowl matchup vs. Ravens

    • Pace, injuries give value to the UNDER for Sunday's Titans-Colts clash

    • Friday college hoops odds, betting primer: Purdue favored over VCU to continue mid-season tournament form

    • Point spreads released for potential 2019-20 College Football Playoff matchups

    • Week 14 Big Ten betting lines, projections: Weather forecast gives Wisconsin advantage over Minnesota

    • NFL Thanksgiving Day player props: A trio of bets to consider for Thursday

    • Wednesday college hoops odds and betting primer: Maui, Battle 4 Atlantis highlight slate

    • Bears-Lions point spread moves in major way with Detroit down to third-string QB on Thanksgiving Day

    • Super Bowl 54 odds update: Ravens overtake Patriots as new betting favorites

    • Tuesday college hoops betting: Market expects letdown for Virginia Tech with Dayton up next in Maui

    • NCAA Tournament odds, AP Top 25 rankings: Michigan State enters Maui with shortest odds

    • Ohio State passes LSU as clear favorite to win national championship

    • NFL Week 13 betting lines: Bears favored in Detroit as they look to improve league-worst ATS record

    • Monday college basketball betting lines and primer: Indiana, Butler face toughest tests of young season

    • Packers vs. 49ers player props: A trio of bets to consider for SNF

    • 49ers on ATS skid a they begin historically tough stretch as field-goal favorites vs. Packers

      • 2019 college football conference championship game betting6h89j4a9IejRepcQM6WbKW

        2019 college football conference championship game betting

      • Chicago Bears14mPPILYpyg6sOWoQyKyuU

        Chicago Bears Betting

      • College basketball betting odds, point spreads, and picks3BzVmCZOq5R61S6tn8V5YJ

        College basketball betting odds, point spreads, and picks for the 2019-20 season

      • Cubs4W58vIh9IkG6KiMEmOKcwe

        Chicago Cubs odds, lines and betting analysis

      • NBA 2019-20 season betting odds and analysislwSuFryrsiE8ca7XOOfEf

        NBA betting odds, lines and insight for the 2019-20 season

      • Fantasy football news, analysis and advice3YVUyLIiMgcQ88eeoMemaQ

        Fantasy football news, cheat sheets, analysis, and advise

      • NFL Week 14 betting lines and analysis, 2019 season Ku3B6NUyv4jlL7IbXBqCv

        2019 NFL Week 14 betting lines, picks and analysis

      • White Sox4nBxczxfu0ekYQk8S6oycM

        Chicago White Sox Odds, Lines and Betting Analysis

      Illinois Sports Betting News, Information and Insight
      Chicago sports betting news, odds and analysis
      <div><div><h3>Download the BetChicago app</h3><p>The latest version of the BetChicago app is available for download, and once you take that step, you’ll be a tap away from the most important news driving the betting market, research and analysis from our editorial team and a line into the knowledge and opinion of some of the country’s biggest and best oddsmakers. </p><p>You’ll also get the up-to-date futures odds, point spreads, moneylines and totals, as well as scores, schedules, matchups and more. </p><p>The app gives you quick access to our <a href="https://betchicago.chalkline.com/">free-to-play contests</a> that offer the chance to win cash and other great prizes. </p><p>Also, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/userregistration">create a BetChicago account</a> to receive email updates and be able to customize notifications, save stories, select your favorite teams and players and more. Download the BetChicago app at<a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/betchicago/id1404462108?mt=8"> iTunes</a> or <a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.betchicago.app&hl=en_UShttps://itunes.apple.com/us/app/betchicago/id1404462108?mt=8">Google Play</a> today.</p></div></div>
      <div><p>As legalized sports betting expands, so too are the wagering options available to gamblers. Sportsbooks are getting more and more creative in what they’re posting on their oddsboards. While traditional pre-event bets – such as point spreads, moneylines and totals – remain popular, live betting is become a larger part of the sports betting experience.  Also, prop bets aren’t just for the Super Bowl anymore. In fact, there are props to wager on for practically any sporting event around the world.</p><p>Whether it’s on the <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/nfl-betting">NFL</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/college-football-betting">college football</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/mlb-betting/home">MLB</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/nba-betting">NBA</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/ncaa-basketball-betting">NCAA basketball</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/nhl-betting">NHL</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/soccer-betting">soccer</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/nascar-betting">NASCAR</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/ufc-betting">UFC</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/boxing">boxing</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/horse-racing-odds">horse racing</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/tennis-odds">tennis</a>, entertainment or eSports, it’s difficult to win long term betting on sports. That’s why it’s important to read up on the news that impacts the markets, dig deep into advanced statistics and hear from oddsmakers about how and why lines are moving.</p><p>Here at BetChicago, we follow sports betting from a national and even international perspective, but we put a special emphasis on Chicago, Illinois and the Midwest region. That means, for example, if you’re interested in where the futures odds of the <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/bears-betting">Bears</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/cubs-betting-odds">Cubs</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/white-sox-betting-odds">White Sox</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/bulls-betting-odds">Bulls</a> and <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/blackhawks-betting-odds">Blackhawks</a> stand, look no further. If you want insight and analysis about the betting lines for <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/big-ten-football-betting-odds">Big Ten football</a> or <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/big-ten-college-basketball-betting-lines-odds-trends-predictions">basketball</a> or <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/notre-dame-football-odds-betting">Notre Dame</a> sports, you’re at the right place.</p></div>