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Thursday college basketball odds, trends, analysis: Illinois chalk vs. Minnesota in Big Ten battle of bigs

Thursday college basketball odds, trends, analysis: Illinois chalk vs. Minnesota in Big Ten battle of bigs

No. 19 Illinois opens a 5-point home favorite over Minnesota, the Gophers yet to crack 60 points in four road games against ranked opponents this season.

Eric Dewberry
Staff Writer
//images.ctfassets.net/p0ykbbcw3bn6/23tuLGLVrez8cybY1DBFnB/cd2c0cc1b9a93eec4f2923c4e9c1525d/eric-dewberry-colorpng_1cx64nq4cwll11njt96zl19jm8.png
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@eric_dewberry
Eric Dewberry is a sports analyst with previous stops at The Linemakers on Sporting News and Cox Enterprises. He owns a PhD in Communications, a drum kit, and way too many baseball cards.
Two of the better front courts in the Big Ten clash Thursday night, with No. 19 Illinois opening a 5-point favorite hosting Minnesota at State Farm Center. Strong defense should feature, as both teams excel at protecting the rim. UNDER bettors take notice. Oddsmakers opened No. 18 Iowa a 6-point underdog at No. 15 Maryland in the other Big Ten game on the schedule. It's the Hawkeyes' first road game against a ranked opponent this season. Their betting record in this situation over the last few seasons is abysmal. Over in the Pac-12, No. 11 Oregon opened a rare road double-digit favorite in a tricky tilt at Cal, the Golden Bears proving an upset machine at Haas Pavilion. __2020 NCAA Tournament odds:__ [Parity at the top](https://www.betchicago.com/ncaa-tournament-odds-2020-update-parity-college-basketball) Below are odds and betting information to help your Thursday college basketball handicapping. ## Minnesota at No. 19 Illinois (-5, 135.5) __Tip:__ 7:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. CT (FS1) __Betting scoop:__ Minnesota (11-9 SU, 12-7-1 ATS) picked up a scarce Big Ten road victory in its last away game, surprising Ohio State 62-59 as an 8.5-point underdog. Can it play spoiler again catching points at Illinois? One has to go back to the 2016-17 campaign to uncover the last time the Gophers won consecutive conference road games. Road victories against ranked teams have been especially tough to come by for head coach Richard Pitino. Since 2013, he is 2-23 SU and 9-14-2 ATS in these spots. The offense slumps to 63.5 points per game on 40.5% shooting. The Gophers, in fact, have not reached their projected team total in the last 11 contests under these conditions, scoring 60 points or fewer in each. This includes trips to Butler (56 points), Iowa (52), Michigan State (58) and Rutgers (56) this season. Illinois (15-5 SU, 10-8-1 ATS) enters ranked No. 19 in the AP Poll, its highest ranking since January 2013. This matchup features two of the better frontcourts in the Big Ten: Illinois is anchored by freshman Kofi Cockburn (14.5 ppg, 9.4 rpg), while Daniel Oturu (19.7 ppg, 11.3 rpg) is the man in the middle for Minnesota. The Illini are particularly adept at using their size to protect the basket, yielding just 26.5% of shots [at the rim](https://hoop-math.com/leader_d2020.php). This ranks 12th nationally. The Gophers give up more in the area, but rate above-average in rejections, swatting 14% of attempts away from the space. Oturu averages 2.5 blocks per game. This defensive scenario in the paint sets up well for UNDER bettors. The wager has cashed in six game straight when Illinois squares off against a team tallying greater than four blocks per game and by a whopping -16.9 point average. The Gophers block 4.8 a night, [third most](https://bigten.org/confstats.aspx/2019-20/mbb/confldrs?path=mbball) in the conference. ## No. 18 Iowa at No. 15 Maryland (-5.5, 146) __Tip:__ 8:30 p.m. ET / 7:30 p.m. CT (BTN) __Betting scoop:__ Maryland (16-4 SU, 12-8 ATS) is in good betting form, covering the spread in six of its seven games since the New Year. The one blemish is a 67-49 defeat as 1.5-point chalk at Iowa (15-5 SU, 12-6-2 ATS). The defense is yielding 61.3 points per game on 40.6% shooting in this span. The Terps could find easy revenge based on the Hawkeyes' recent road play against elite teams. Fran McCaffery's program is winless and 0-11 ATS since January 2016 facing ranked teams in away games. Opponents are obliterating the defense under these conditions, averaging 83.8 points on 48.9% from the floor. This is Iowa's first road clash against a ranked team this season. In the last calendar year, Maryland is 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS inside XFINITY Center. The UNDER is 12-4 as well. ## No. 11 Oregon (-11, 129) at California __Tip:__ 9 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. CT (PAC12) __Betting scoop:__ Oregon (17-4 SU, 13-8 ATS) has not laid double digits in a conference road game since March 2016. Early wagering is favoring the UNDER, the total moving from a 130 opener offshore to a consensus 128.5 before a half-point nudge upward, regression imminent from an OVER-heavy Ducks season to date. The OVER is 15-6 in Oregon contests this season, though overtime aided four of the winning bets. The Pac-12 leader ranks 16th in the country with a 54.5% effective field goal rate, but it's defense around the basket is the team's strongest aspect. The Ducks allow a 49.2% opponent success rate near the rim, eighth lowest in D1 hoops. Head coach Dana Altman is loaded with front court depth, easily managing a current 10-day absence by freshman N'Faly Dante, the 6-foot-11 forward suffering from a knee injury. His status is undetermined for Thursday night. Cal (9-10 SU, 8-11 ATS) is coming off one of its biggest upset wins in recent history, erasing an 11-point second-half deficit to topple Stanford 52-50 as an 8-point pup. It's the Golden Bears' fourth straight-up win this season catching points, also beating Pepperdine (-1.5), Fresno State (-1) and Washington (-6.5). All four victories occurred at Haas Pavilion. *This story was compiled with the help of queries performed at [SportsDatabase](http://sportsdatabase.com/).* __Bookmark us:__ [College basketball betting](https://www.betchicago.com/ncaa-basketball-betting)
2020-01-30T12:18:22.314Z2020-01-30T07:18-05:00
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