ESPN has updated its preseason Football Power Index (FPI) rankings for the 2019 season, this time with projected [win-loss simulations](http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/sort/projectedWPct) for all 130 FBS teams. The advanced data set can be used as another tool to help handicappers examine futures and season win totals for the upcoming season. Clemson leads Alabama atop the projected 2019 wins list with a projected record of 12.3-0.7 to Alabama's 11.0-1.6. The numbers contain projections for the postseason, which skews wins and losses when comparing it to sportsbooks' regular season win totals. The good news is the worst teams in college football likely won't make the postseason, making FPI's projections a good indicator to how many wins the bottom-feeders will have for the upcoming season. Let's take a look at how the data compares to season win totals for the 30-worst teams in college football. __Big Ten win totals and picks:__ [Northwestern](https://www.betchicago.com/northwestern-win-total-2019-predictions-betting-point-spreads) | [Wisconsin](https://www.betchicago.com/wisconsin-season-win-total-picks-2019-badgers-schedule-big-ten) | [Michigan](https://www.betchicago.com/michigan-season-win-total-betting-predictions-wolverines-ats-odds) | [Minnesota](https://www.betchicago.com/minnesota-season-win-total-betting-predictions-gophers-odds) | [Michigan State](https://www.betchicago.com/2019-college-football-betting-win-totals-michigan-state) | [Ohio State](https://www.betchicago.com/ohio-state-season-win-total-betting-picks-ats-2019) | [Nebraska](https://www.betchicago.com/nebraska-season-win-total-betting-picks) ## 2019 ESPN FPI vs. win totals for the worst teams in FBS *Note: ESPN's FPI measures how many points better (or worse) teams are compared to an average team (power-rated at zero) on a neutral field.* <style type="text/css"> </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <thead><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>RANK</th><th>TEAM</th><th>PROJ W-L</th><th>Win Total</th><th>FPI</th></tr></thead><tbody> <tr><td>100</td><td>Cal</td><td>4.8 - 7.2</td><td>6</td><td>2.2</td></tr> <tr><td>101</td><td>Purdue </td><td>4.8 - 7.2</td><td>7.5</td><td>0.4</td></tr> <tr><td>102</td><td>Arkansas </td><td>4.8 - 7.2</td><td>5</td><td>0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>103</td><td>Illinois </td><td>4.7 - 7.3</td><td>3.5</td><td>-3.9</td></tr> <tr><td>104</td><td>Colorado St </td><td>4.7 - 7.3</td><td>3.5</td><td>-9</td></tr> <tr><td>105</td><td>Cent Mich </td><td>4.7 - 7.4</td><td>4</td><td>-14.5</td></tr> <tr><td>106</td><td>West Va</td><td>4.6 - 7.4</td><td>5</td><td>1.1</td></tr> <tr><td>107</td><td>Georgia St </td><td>4.6 - 7.5</td><td>3.5</td><td>-12.1</td></tr> <tr><td>108</td><td>UTSA </td><td>4.6 - 7.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>-14.5</td></tr> <tr><td>109</td><td>Charlotte </td><td>4.5 - 7.5</td><td>4.5</td><td>-15</td></tr> <tr><td>110</td><td>New Mexico </td><td>4.4 - 7.6</td><td>5</td><td>-13.4</td></tr> <tr><td>111</td><td>Louisville </td><td>4.4 - 7.6</td><td>4</td><td>-1</td></tr> <tr><td>112</td><td>Tulsa </td><td>4.3 - 7.7</td><td>4.5</td><td>-7.8</td></tr> <tr><td>113</td><td>Bowling Green </td><td>4.2 - 7.8</td><td>3</td><td>-15.2</td></tr> <tr><td>114</td><td>Maryland </td><td>4.1 - 7.9</td><td>4</td><td>-1.3</td></tr> <tr><td>115</td><td>Akron </td><td>4.1 - 7.9</td><td>3.5</td><td>-16.5</td></tr> <tr><td>116</td><td>Kent St </td><td>4.1 - 8.0</td><td>4</td><td>-13.8</td></tr> <tr><td>117</td><td>San Jose St</td><td>4.0 - 8.0</td><td>2.5</td><td>-12.4</td></tr> <tr><td>118</td><td>Colorado </td><td>4.0 - 8.1</td><td>4.5</td><td>0.3</td></tr> <tr><td>119</td><td>Navy </td><td>3.9 - 8.1</td><td>5.5</td><td>-13.6</td></tr> <tr><td>120</td><td>Georgia Tech </td><td>3.7 - 8.3</td><td>4</td><td>-4.6</td></tr> <tr><td>121</td><td>UMass </td><td>3.6 - 8.4</td><td>2.5</td><td>-18.3</td></tr> <tr><td>122</td><td>New Mexico St </td><td>3.5 - 8.5</td><td>3.5</td><td>-17.8</td></tr> <tr><td>123</td><td>Rutgers </td><td>3.5 - 8.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>-6.6</td></tr> <tr><td>124</td><td>UTEP </td><td>3.4 - 8.6</td><td>3</td><td>-22</td></tr> <tr><td>125</td><td>Oregon St </td><td>3.1 - 8.9</td><td>2.5</td><td>-4.7</td></tr> <tr><td>126</td><td>Old Dominion </td><td>2.9 - 9.1</td><td>4.5</td><td>-20.9</td></tr> <tr><td>127</td><td>UConn </td><td>2.8 - 9.2</td><td>2.5</td><td>-19.8</td></tr> <tr><td>128</td><td>Kansas </td><td>2.8 - 9.2</td><td>3</td><td>-11</td></tr> <tr><td>129</td><td>South Alab</td><td>2.3 - 9.7</td><td>2.5</td><td>-21.9</td></tr> <tr><td>130</td><td>Rice </td><td>1.5 - 10.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>-22.7</td></tr> </tbody></table> __MORE:__ [College football win totals and picks](https://www.betchicago.com/college-football-win-totals-picks-2019-season) | [Heisman Trophy betting update](https://www.betchicago.com/2019-heisman-trophy-betting-report-shea-patterson-sam-ehlinger) ## Three takeaways 1) Purdue coming in at No. 101 in the country with a projected win-loss of 4.8-7.2 is easily the biggest shocker of the new FPI list. We outlined [in our betting preview](https://www.betchicago.com/purdue-season-win-total-betting-odds-schedule-predictions) that returning production and a hard schedule make it tough to trust the Boilers, but we still had Jeff Brohm's team near seven wins. ESPN ranks Purdue's non-conference schedule (at Nevada, vs. Vanderbilt, vs. TCU) as the ninth-toughest in the country and clearly downgrades the Boilers after losing QB David Blough. 2) Navy is another program FPI is down on (3.9-8.1) compared to the betting market. The Midshipmen went 3-10 last season and ranked sixth-to-last in returning production, and they must replace record-setting placekicker Bennett Moehring. Similar to FPI, advanced [data set S&P+](https://twitter.com/RodgersBC/status/1143575269648809984) also sees Navy struggling to reach four wins (3.7). 3) Rice has the "honor" of being FPI's worst team in college football this upcoming season with a projected record of 1.5-10.5, still a full victory below its season win total of 2.5. The Owls are also FPI's worst power-rated team in the country at -22.7, meaning they are 22.7 points worse than the average team. Rice will have a new quarterback next season, but they do return 13 starters from last year's 2-win team. Unfortunately for Rice, there are no cupcakes on this year's schedule and its "easier" games of the season will come on the road at UTSA and at UTEP. __MORE:__ [Odds to make 2019 College Football Playoff](https://www.betchicago.com/odds-2019-college-football-playoff-betting-notre-dame) | [No, Texas football isn't back](https://www.betchicago.com/texas-longhorns-football-betting-point-spreads-win-total)