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Horse Racing

Louisiana Derby odd and picks: War of Will is clear favorite but surprises could find way into exotics

Louisiana Derby odd and picks: War of Will is clear favorite but surprises could find way into exotics

Beyond favorite War of Will, it’s a crap shoot for the minor awards at the Louisiana Derby, where some surprises could get a piece of the trifecta and superfecta.

Peter Monaco
contributing writer
//images.ctfassets.net/p0ykbbcw3bn6/1oMIwfAD0o86OA6ag4iS8u/816e3d4c3a643b49d316019470b63f71/0.jpg
6QUyWTUOje6MCM4m8cCmO0
@blade_monaco
Pete Monaco grew up in Seaford, N.Y., some 15 miles from Belmont and 21 miles from Aqueduct. His grandfather lived a block from Aqueduct and introduced Peter to horse racing. Now living in Arizona, Peter has over 45 years of experience wagering on and writing about horse racing.
War of Will headlines the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds on Saturday. The Mark Casse trainee comes into this race with two dominating stakes wins over this New Orleans course, and he'll be a deserving odds-on favorite. Looking beyond War of Will, it’s a crap shoot for the minor awards among the other contenders. The field of 11 could yield some surprises for the trifecta and superfecta. This race offers more points toward Kentucky Derby qualifying than most preps, distributed on a 100-40-20-10 basis to the top-four finishers. The race will be televised on NBCSN as part of the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" [series](https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/prep-races), with coverage from 4:30-5:30 p.m. CT. The Louisiana Derby, the 13th race on Saturday’s Fair Grounds card, will be run at 1-1/8 miles on the dirt course with a post time of 5:13 pm CT. ## Louisiana Derby field, odds, trainers and jockeys 1) ROILAND Morning-line odds: 12/1 Trainer: Tom Amoss Jockey: James Graham Record: 6 starts (2 first, 1 second, 1 third) Earnings: $119,660 Last seen on Feb. 16 on this track running third in the [Risen Star Stakes](https://www.horseracingnation.com/race/2019_Risen_Star). He was 69/1 that day and overcame a slow start to close within 3-3/4 lengths of War of Will. This fellow seems to find trouble in all his races, and he doesn't break well either. He is better than he looks on paper and might make a strong late bid if he runs trouble free, but too many things need to go his way. Passing. 2) LEMNISCATE Morning-line odds: 15/1 Trainer: Kenny McPeek Jockey: Brian Hernandez Record: 3 starts (1-1-0) Earnings: $41,450 After a fourth-place finish in his initial outing, he ran a good second on the dirt at Gulfstream and was then put on the grass and responded with his first win. Hard to think he could compete with the likes of War of Will after breaking his maiden by a length on the sod only three weeks ago. Passing. 3) LIMONITE Morning-line odds: 20/1 Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Jose Ortiz Record: 5 starts (1-1-2) Earnings: $92,300 He steadied entering the stretch in his last outing in the Risen Star and finished fifth, 7-1/4 lengths behind War of Will. In his previous race, he ran third to Signalman in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill. This fellow is a tough read, as he showed some speed in a couple races as a juvenile but has been a dead closer in his last pair. He needs a pace meltdown to have a shot here, and I'm not liking his chances. Passing. 4) SUENO Morning-line odds: 8/1 Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Corey Lanerie Record: 5 starts (2-2-1) Earnings: $190,440 He's never been off the board in five outings at four different racetracks. He ran second in the Southwest Stakes last month and second in the Sham Stakes in January. In both races, he finished within a length of the winner, and the two races before that produced winning efforts. He's in good form, seems like a tough guy and likes to be around at the wire. Contender. 5) BY MY STANDARDS Morning-line odds: 12/1 Trainer: Bret Calhoun Jockey: Gabriel Saez Record: 4 starts (1-2-1) Earnings: $53,710 This colt hit the board in his first three starts and then broke through to score by 4-1/4 lengths over this course for his first win on Feb.16. He has two bullet workouts out of his last three over this track, and he seems to be progressing nicely. If he can step it up a notch, he's capable of running well. Possible, but not probable. 6) WAR OF WILL Morning-line odds: 6/5 Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione Record: 7 starts (3-1-1) Earnings: $491,569 Three-for-three since switching to the dirt from the lawn and has the speed to position himself sweetly from the bell. He can stalk the pace if need be, or he might just hit the front and wave goodbye. He's won his last three races by a combined 11-1/4 lengths, and two of those were over this strip. All systems say ‘go’, and you must beat this one to greet the cashier with a bigger price. Tough and ready. 7) MR. MONEY Morning-line odds: 20/1 Trainer: Bret Calhoun Jockey: Adam Beschizza Record: 5 starts (1-2-0) Earnings: $154,400 He ran a distant seventh in the Risen Star, beaten over eight lengths behind War of Will. But he was on the shelf for 3-1/2 months before that, after finishing fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile [in November](https://www.horseracingnation.com/race/2018_Breeders_Cup_Juvenile), and he encountered some traffic trouble in his return race. He should be tighter for this with that effort under his belt, but he seems to be another in this field that finds his own trouble. A minor placing would seem to be the ceiling, even if everything goes well. Passing. 8) COUNTRY HOUSE Morning-line odds: 9/2 Trainer: Bill Mott Jockey: Luis Saez Record: 4 starts (1-2-0) Earnings: $120,175 Lightly-raced colt ran a good second to War of Will in the Risen Star, coming within 2-1/4 lengths of that rival. But he was off a bit slow and was green in the stretch that day. He probably can't make up those 2-1/4 lengths, but he might come closer today. He'll be thundering home and making some noise late in the lane. Contender. 9) BANKIT Morning-line odds: 20/1 Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Irad Otiz, Jr. Record: 8 starts (2-3-0) Earnings: $345,625 In his last start in the Southwest Stakes, he floated out wide and stayed there to finish fifth. In his previous start in the Smarty Jones, he didn't fire either and finished sixth. Can't fault those who want to give him another shot to regain the form he showed late last year, but I'll pass. 10) SPINOFF Morning-line odds: 8/1 Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez Record: 3 starts (2-0-1) Earnings: $60,000 He's progressed in every one of his three races, the last an 11-length romp in an allowance race last month at Tampa, and before that ran a solid third in a Grade 2 event at Saratoga last August. He broke his maiden like a professional in June, and if he can go forward a full notch, he's right there with this bunch. Contender. 11) HOG CREEK HUSTLE Morning-line odds: 12/1 Trainer: Vickie Foley Jockey: Miguel Mena Record: 6 starts (2-1-1) Earnings: $137,300 Yet another who was last seen in the Risen Star, this fellow ran fourth behind War of Will, Country House and Roiland, who are all in this race. He did have to check early in the Risen Star and had a wide trip to boot. Also another who seems to find trouble or run wide in most of his races, but if he can get out of the gate, find a way to save some ground and stay straight, he can move up today. A lot of "ifs" but still possible. ## Louisiana Derby picks No. 6 WAR OF WILL (6/5 odds) Big edge against these No. 8 COUNTRY HOUSE (9/2) Should be flying late No. 10 SPINOFF (8/1) Dangerous speed No. 4 SUENO (8/1) In good form #5 BY MY STANDARDS (12/1) Longshot with a shot __Follow along with us__: [Road to 2019 Kentucky Derby](https://www.betchicago.com/kentucky-derby-2019-odds-picks-contenders)
2019-03-23T16:03:41.464Z2019-03-23T12:03-04:00
  • Louisiana Derby odd and picks: War of Will is clear favorite but surprises could find way into exotics

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