Minnesota was one of the most polarizing teams in college football last season, but with 16 returning starters and the most returning production [in the Big Ten](https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2019/1/31/18204093/2019-ncaa-football-returning-starters-experience), the Gophers are in prime position to make a run in the West division despite a win total of 6.5 in P.J. Fleck's third year. Inexperience and injuries derailed Minnesota in 2018 and left bettors nearly clueless in every game. Only two of the Gophers' 13 games finished within 10 points of the spread. They won outright as underdogs or at pick 'em in five games, but also turned in a 24-point loss to Illinois as a 9.5-point favorite and lost by 25 to Nebraska as a slim 4.5-point underdog. In all, Minnesota's games averaged a point-spread difference of 20.1 points. __MORE:__ [2019 Heisman Trophy betting report](https://www.betchicago.com/2019-heisman-trophy-betting-report-shea-patterson-sam-ehlinger) | [Week 1 point spreads](https://www.betchicago.com/college-football-point-spreads-predictions-week-1-2019) Fleck's teams at Western Michigan showed improvement in each of his four seasons, and he's setting up to do the same in his third year at Minnesota with nine starters returning on offense. Fleck has a three-headed monster at running back with Mohamed Ibrahim, Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks running behind four returning starters on the offensive line. Smith and Brooks have a combined 4,844 rushing yards and return healthy after tearing ACLs last year. The Gophers O-line ranked fifth nationally in stuff rate and 11th in adjusted line yards last season and will help QB Zack Annexstad create a great play-action offense in 2019. Annexstad started seven games last season before an injury ended his season. His backup, Tanner Morgan, filled in admirably with a 147.6 passer rating as a freshman. Annexstad is expected to begin the season as the starter and help the Gophers improve their 69th ranked offensive explosiveness. His main targets will be WRs Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman, who were named to Phil Steele's preseason first and second All-Big Ten teams, respectively. Minnesota defensive back Antoine Winfield Jr. also got a first team nod by Steele. The junior is coming off an injury plagued season but was a freshman All-American in 2016. Winfield is the clear star of the Gophers defense under their first full season with defensive coordinator Joe Rossi, who earned the permanent job after forcing Wisconsin into four turnovers in Minnesota's first Paul Bunyan's Axe win in Madison since 1994. Rossi needs to replace last season's leading tacklers Blake Cashman and Jacob Huff but has DE Carter Coughlin back to anchor a defensive line that helped the Gophers rank 11th nationally last season in stuff rate. __More college win totals:__ [Notre Dame](https://www.betchicago.com/notre-dame-2019-betting-point-spreads-win-total) | [Northwestern](https://www.betchicago.com/northwestern-win-total-2019-predictions-betting-point-spreads) | [Wisconsin](https://www.betchicago.com/wisconsin-season-win-total-picks-2019-badgers-schedule-big-ten) | [Michigan](https://www.betchicago.com/michigan-season-win-total-betting-predictions-wolverines-ats-odds) ## 2019 Minnesota football S&P+ rankings 2019 S&P+: 9.5 2019 S&P+ rank: No. 33 overall | No. 7 Big Ten 2019 offense rank: No. 45 2019 defense rank: No. 34 Final 2018 S&P+: 6.3; No. 45 overall | No. 8 Big Ten 2018 record: 7-6 overall, 3-6 in Big Ten, 6-6 regular season 2018 second-order wins: 6.9 (-0.1) The preseason S&P+ ratings take into consideration recruiting, returning production and recent history to create a power rating for all 130 teams. Returning production makes up a vast majority of the preseason S&P+ projections, which are informed overall by tempo- and opponent-adjusted components of the five factors of college football: Efficiency, explosiveness, field position and finishing drives. Per creator Bill Connelly, the fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates. [Click here](https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/10/13/16457830/college-football-advanced-stats-analytics-rankings) to learn more about S&P+. Minnesota's preseason S&P+ power rating is 9.5, which means the Gophers are 9.5 points better than an average team (power-rated at zero) on a neutral field. ## 2019 Minnesota football schedule, predictions Projections provided by S&P+ <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table { font-size: 12px; border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; } .tableizer-table td { padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #CCC; } .tableizer-table th { background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold; } </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <thead><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>2019 outlook</th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>&nbsp;</th></tr></thead><tbody> <tr><td>Proj. Rk</td><td>33</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Proj. Off. Rk</td><td>45</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Proj. Def. Rk</td><td>34</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Projected Wins</td><td>7.5</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Proj. Wins (+7 PPG)</td><td>8.9</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Proj. Wins (-7 PPG)</td><td>5.8</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Opponent (Proj. Rk)</td><td>Date</td><td>Proj. Margin</td><td>Win Prob.</td></tr> <tr><td>S. Dakota St. (NR)</td><td>29-Aug</td><td>26.6</td><td>94%</td></tr> <tr><td>at Fresno St. (51)</td><td>7-Sep</td><td>1.5</td><td>53%</td></tr> <tr><td>Ga. Southern (81)</td><td>14-Sep</td><td>13.5</td><td>78%</td></tr> <tr><td>at Purdue (58)</td><td>28-Sep</td><td>2.8</td><td>56%</td></tr> <tr><td>Illinois (91)</td><td>5-Oct</td><td>15.8</td><td>82%</td></tr> <tr><td>Nebraska (45)</td><td>12-Oct</td><td>5.4</td><td>62%</td></tr> <tr><td>at Rutgers (108)</td><td>19-Oct</td><td>19.3</td><td>87%</td></tr> <tr><td>Maryland (67)</td><td>26-Oct</td><td>9.9</td><td>72%</td></tr> <tr><td>Penn St. (14)</td><td>9-Nov</td><td>-6.3</td><td>36%</td></tr> <tr><td>at Iowa (25)</td><td>16-Nov</td><td>-5.5</td><td>38%</td></tr> <tr><td>at NW (57)</td><td>23-Nov</td><td>2.8</td><td>56%</td></tr> <tr><td>Wisconsin (11)</td><td>30-Nov</td><td>-8.1</td><td>32%</td></tr> </tbody></table> ## Betting Minnesota football in 2019 In addition to the most returning production in the Big Ten, the Gophers also have the easiest conference schedule. Minnesota doesn't have to play Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State, and gets Nebraska, Penn State and Wisconsin at home. The betting market features Minnesota in just one Game of the Year, as a 2.5-point underdog home against over-hyped Nebraska on Oct. 12. The Cornhuskers will be improved next season, but our power ratings, along with S&P+ projections, forecast a bigger jump for the Gophers. S&P+ says Minnesota is 5.4 points better at home, and we're closer to 1.5 points better. The game will be the first conference road game of the season for Nebraska, a team that hasn't won away from Lincoln since Oct. 28, 2017. S&P+ says Minnesota is a road underdog in just one game this season (Iowa), the Gophers also figure to be underdogs to Penn State and Wisconsin. The potential for a 9-win season is within Minnesota's grasps, according to S&P+, and the data set projects them as the third-best team in the West. OVER 6.5 wins is a bet to consider for Minnesota this upcoming season, and we don't expect the current win total to be available for long. Taking a flier on the Gophers to win the Big Ten at 50/1 has our attention, but we [already took Michigan to get the job done](https://www.betchicago.com/michigan-season-win-total-betting-predictions-wolverines-ats-odds). It's best to [Row The Boat](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoGqXuQK0Vc) with the Gophers' win total in 2019. __2019 Minnesota football best bets:__ +2.5 vs. Nebraska. OVER 6.5 wins. __MORE:__ [Odds to make 2019 College Football Playoff](https://www.betchicago.com/odds-2019-college-football-playoff-betting-notre-dame) | [No, Texas football isn't back](https://www.betchicago.com/texas-longhorns-football-betting-point-spreads-win-total)