Following a chaotic finish at Daytona, the NASCAR Cup Series moves to a more traditional track in Las Vegas for Sunday's Pennzoil 400 (3:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. CT, FOX). Nothing learned from Daytona will be useful for Sunday's race at the 1.5-mile track because the volatility, speeds, track layout, rules package and betting strategy are very different. Daytona was about focusing on outright longshot winners due to an equal playing field and crash attrition, but Vegas more of a focus on betting head-to-head matchups and the added derivatives from sportsbooks in Nevada with the race in their backyard. Four drivers have won 24 of the 33 races on 1.5 mile tracks since 2017: Martin Truex Jr. (10), Kevin Harvick (six); Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski (four each). It's no surprise that those four drivers have the shortest odds at the Westgate SuperBook to win on Sunday with Busch and Harvick leading the way at +450. Those four drivers are also former Cup Series champions, something to keep in mind this weekend as 17 of the past 19 [Las Vegas winners](https://www.racing-reference.info/tracks/Las_Vegas_Motor_Speedway) have been Cup champions. The 2018 series winner Joey Logano is the reigning Las Vegas spring race winner and is the only driver under the age of 30 to win in the last 12 races at the track (including the 2019 fall race won by Truex). The trends point to either Logano, Busch, Harvick, Truex or Keselowski winning on Sunday. But, trends are made to be broken and one driver to keep an eye on is Kyle Larson at 10/1. He's never won at a 1.5-mile track in his Cup career, but Las Vegas is one of his best tracks and he's had the fifth-best driver rating at the track over the past five races with an average finish of 5.4 while spending nearly 80% of all laps during that span within the top 15. The added grip from the track allows Larson to run at his preferred high-side of the track up against the wall. __NASCAR betting review:__ [A dive into handicapping the sport from all angles](https://www.betchicago.com/betting-nascar-daytona-500-odds-strategy-stats-trends-picks) ## Odds to win 2020 Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Kyle BUSCH 9/2 Kevin HARVICK 9/2 Martin TRUEX JR 5/1 Brad KESELOWSKI 6/1 Joey LOGANO 7/1 Denny HAMLIN 10/1 Kyle LARSON 10/1 Chase ELLIOTT 14/1 Ryan BLANEY 20/1 Kurt BUSCH 30/1 Erik JONES 30/1 Alex BOWMAN 30/1 William BYRON 30/1 Jimmie JOHNSON 40/1 Clint BOWYER 60/1 Aric ALMIROLA 80/1 Matt DiBENEDETTO 60/1 Christopher BELL 100/1 Austin DILLON 100/1 Cole CUSTER 100/1 Chris BUESCHER 300/1 Tyler REDDICK 300/1 Ricky STENHOUSE JR 500/1 Daniel SUAREZ 500/1 John Hunter NEMECHEK 1000/1 Ryan PREECE 1000/1 Ty DILLON 1000/1 Darrell WALLACE JR 1000/1 Michael McDOWELL 1000/1 Corey LaJOIE 2000/1 Ross CHASTAIN 5000/1 Brennan POOLE 5000/1 Joey GASE 5000/1 Quin HOUFF 5000/1 JJ YELEY 5000/1 Timmy HILL 5000/1 BJ McLEOD 5000/1 ## Notable Pennzoil 400 matchups and prop bets Kyle BUSCH -110 Kevin HARVICK -110 Kevin HARVICK -140 Joey LOGANO +120 Martin TRUEX JR -125 Brad KESELOWSKI +105 Denny HAMLIN -110 Kyle LARSON -110 Christopher BELL -110 Austin DILLON -110 Chase ELLIOTT -135 Ryan BLANEY +115 Kurt BUSCH -110 Erik JONES -110 Winning Car Number Will Be? 00-17 +130 18-96 -150 Winning Car Number Will Be? ODD +300 EVEN -400 Total Cautions 6.5 OV +110 6.5 UN - 130 Total Cars On Lead Lap 17.5 OV - 110 17.5 UN - 110 Total Number Of Different Drivers To Lead A Lap 10.5 OV -110 10.5 UN -110 Number of lead changes: 19.5 OV -110 19.5 UN -110 Most laps led by one driver: 107.5 OV -110 107.5 UN -110 Manufacturer to win: Ford +140 Toyota +140 Chevy +350 Number of Fords in the top 10: 4.5 OV -115 4.5 UN -105 ## Las Vegas track breakdown, rules package According to NASCAR, the Pennzoil 400 will feature the rules package with a tapered-spacer engine generating around 550 horsepower. The package was used at all 1.5-mile tracks last season and additionally at other flatter tracks for a total of 18 races. In those 18 races, 11 were won by either Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. Truex has also won 12 races on 1.5-mile tracks since 2016, almost twice as many as the next closest driver. Las Vegas' 1.5-mile track isn't know for tire-wear being a huge issue, thus the most-similar track to compare stats with is [Kansas Speedway](https://www.racing-reference.info/tracks/Kansas_Speedway). Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski won the 2019 races at Kansas and Chase Elliott and Kevin Harvick won at Kansas in 2018. ## NASCAR at Las Vegas driver stats and notes <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table { font-size: 12px; border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; } .tableizer-table td { padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #CCC; } .tableizer-table th { background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold; } </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <thead><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Key Stats</th><th>&nbsp;</th></tr></thead><tbody> <tr><td>Drivers</td><td>Driver Rating</td></tr> <tr><td>Kevin Harvick</td><td>104</td></tr> <tr><td>Joey Logano</td><td>103.3</td></tr> <tr><td>Jimmie Johnson</td><td>102.9</td></tr> <tr><td>Kyle Busch</td><td>101.8</td></tr> <tr><td>Martin Truex Jr.</td><td>97.6</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Drivers</td><td>Avg. Running Pos.</td></tr> <tr><td>Joey Logano</td><td>9.162</td></tr> <tr><td>Kyle Busch</td><td>10.23</td></tr> <tr><td>Kevin Harvick</td><td>10.722</td></tr> <tr><td>Chase Elliott</td><td>10.765</td></tr> <tr><td>Jimmie Johnson</td><td>10.938</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Drivers</td><td>Laps in Top 15</td></tr> <tr><td>Kevin Harvick</td><td>3,405 (74.6%)</td></tr> <tr><td>Kyle Busch</td><td>3,327 (77.4%)</td></tr> <tr><td>Jimmie Johnson</td><td>3,227 (70.7%)</td></tr> <tr><td>Martin Truex Jr</td><td>3,043 (70.8%)</td></tr> <tr><td>Ryan Newman</td><td>2,820 (61.8%)</td></tr> </tbody></table> • Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick lead the series in top-five finishes at Las Vegas with seven each. • Joey Logano leads all active drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series in average finish at LVMS with a 8.5. Ryan Blaney is next at 9.9. • Kyle Busch's lone win on a 1.5-mile track last season came in the finale at Homestead. • Kurt Busch has only two top-five and five top-10 finishes in 20 starts at Vegas • Of the Cup's six rookies, Tyler Reddick has had the most success at Vegas having won the Xfinity Series race there last September and a 2016 NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series race there. <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table { font-size: 12px; border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; } .tableizer-table td { padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #CCC; } .tableizer-table th { background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold; } </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <thead><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Driver</th><th>Races</th><th>Wins</th><th>Top 10s</th><th>Finish</th><th>Rating</th></tr></thead><tbody> <tr><td>Hamlin</td><td>16</td><td>0</td><td>7</td><td>13.8</td><td>83</td></tr> <tr><td>Blaney</td><td>7</td><td>0</td><td>5</td><td>9.9</td><td>92</td></tr> <tr><td>Harvick</td><td>21</td><td>2</td><td>10</td><td>14.2</td><td>104</td></tr> <tr><td>Buescher</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>19.2</td><td>57.4</td></tr> <tr><td>Larson</td><td>8</td><td>0</td><td>5</td><td>11</td><td>93.7</td></tr> <tr><td>Elliott</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>20.7</td><td>95.5</td></tr> <tr><td>Stenhouse </td><td>9</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>21.7</td><td>73</td></tr> <tr><td>Almirola</td><td>13</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>22.2</td><td>66.5</td></tr> <tr><td>Bowyer</td><td>16</td><td>0</td><td>4</td><td>18.3</td><td>72.1</td></tr> <tr><td>Dillon</td><td>9</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>15.9</td><td>77.9</td></tr> <tr><td>Logano</td><td>13</td><td>1</td><td>9</td><td>8.5</td><td>103.3</td></tr> </tbody></table> __MORE:__ [Click here for a full box score from the past five races at LVMS](https://www.scribd.com/document/447989903/NASCAR-Vegas) ## Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas bets to consider __Christopher Bell (-110) over Austin Dillon__ Bell is arguably the future of NASCAR and Joe Gibbs Racing is treating the rookie as such with an “enhanced technical alliance” with the Leavine Family Racing No. 95 team of which Bell currently drives for. In the past, Leavine Family Racing was an underfunded team with high-teens upside each week, but with the added funding from Gibbs and Toyota, [the new alliance](https://racer.com/2019/09/25/leavine-to-get-upgraded-gibbs-trd-support-in-2020/) is "akin to what we had between TRD, Joe Gibbs Racing and Furniture Row Racing (with Truex) a couple years ago." Being a quasi-fifth Gibbs car is huge for Bell and his development. We'll be targeting him moving forward in matchups against inferior competition such as Dillon, who has a 18.1 average finish and 72.0 driver rating at 1.5-mile tracks since the start of the 2018 season. __Ryan Blaney UNDER 9.5 finishing position (EVEN)__ Blaney has had a tough week after starting a wreck that injured Ryan Newman at Daytona, but he's coming off a career 2019 season, when he scored a personal best 11 top-five and 18 top-10 finishes. Vegas has been his happy place, too. In four starts for Team Penske, Blaney has finished fifth three times. He's also led laps in five of the past six Kansas races (Vegas' most-similar track). He's eighth in our power ratings for Sunday's race. __Kyle Larson (-110) over Denny Hamlin__ We touched on why we like Larson above and this matchup is also a fade of Hamlin, who is coming off a Daytona 500 win. Over the past After winning the 500 last season, Hamlin went to Atlanta and Vegas and finished 10th and 11th, respectively. Good, but under-achieving of market expectations. In 16 starts at Las Vegas, Hamlin has earned only two top-five finishes – the best of those, a third-place effort, came in only his second Las Vegas start in 2007. Over the past five races at Vegas, Larson leads Hamlin in nearly every loop-data metric including driver rating, fastest laps, average finish and laps in the top-15. *Statistical information from NASCAR Media releases was used in this report* __Bookmark us:__ [Weekly NASCAR betting previews of each race](https://www.betchicago.com/nascar-betting)