Just four races remain in the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series season, but the winner of Sunday's First Data 500 at Martinsville Speedway will automatically punch his ticket to the title race in November. Currently eight drivers are in contention to make the Championship 4 race at Homestead, but following races at Martinsville, Texas and Phoenix, the bottom four drivers in the Round of 8 standings will be eliminated. Kyle Busch is not only the driver to beat on Sunday, according to 5/2 odds at the Westgate SuperBook, but on the futures board as well at 3/1. Busch enters Martinsville with a slim 4-point lead over Martin Truex Jr. (7/2 title odds) and a 9-point lead over Denny Hamlin (4/1). __MORE:__ [NASCAR title odds, playoff standings entering Round of 8](https://www.betchicago.com/nascar-title-odds-playoff-standings-round-of-8) Busch's 5/2 odds on Sunday may be incredibly short, but the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing driver deserves the respect. Busch has wins in Spring 2016 and in the 2017 playoff race. He was runner-up three more times, including both spring races in 2017 and 2018. Most telling, perhaps, is that of his 17 top-10 finishes – 16 of them are top fives. In the last seven races, Busch has led 937 laps and his average finish (12.0) is second only to five-time Martinsville winner Hamlin among the playoff-eligible drivers. More on that rivalry below. ## The track and rules package At 0.526 miles in length, Martinsville is the shortest track on the Cup circuit. Because of its size and shape — 55-foot width, 588-foot turns (12 degrees of banking) and flat 800-foot straightaways — race cars rarely reach 100 mph. According to NASCAR, the Martinsville race setup will utilize the 2019 rules package used at short tracks for the 13th time this season. Cars will use a tapered-spacer engine that generates a targeted 750 horsepower without being fitted with aero ducts. The last time NASCAR used this package on a short track, Kyle Larson earned a win on Dover's high banks. Martinsville is a much flatter track [like Phoenix](https://www.racing-reference.info/race/2019_Ticket_Guardian_500/W) or [Richmond](https://www.racing-reference.info/race/2019_Federated_Auto_Parts_400/W). In three races at those two tracks this season, Martin Truex Jr. has either finished first or second. Truex is still looking for his first career victory at the half-miler, but he has ran well there, finishing eighth or better in seven of the last nine races. ## Odds to win First Data 500 at Martinsville Kyle BUSCH 5/2 Denny HAMLIN 9/2 Martin TRUEX JR 6/1 Brad KESELOWSKI 7/1 Joey LOGANO 7/1 Chase ELLIOTT 7/1 Kevin HARVICK 14/1 Ryan BLANEY 14/1 Clint BOWYER 25/1 Kyle LARSON 40/1 Erik JONES 40/1 Jimmie JOHNSON 40/1 Kurt BUSCH 40/1 Daniel SUAREZ 60/1 Aric ALMIROLA 60/1 Alex BOWMAN 80/1 William BYRON 80/1 Matt DiBENEDETTO 80/1 Austin DILLON 300/1 Ryan NEWMAN 300/1 Ryan PREECE 300/1 Ricky STENHOUSE JR 300/1 Paul MENARD 300/1 Chris BUESCHER 500/1 Ty DILLON 2000/1 Daniel HEMRIC 2000/1 Darrell WALLACE JR 2000/1 Michael McDOWELL 2000/1 David RAGAN 2000/1 Matt TIFFT 5000/1 Corey LAJOIE 5000/1 Landon CASSILL 5000/1 Ross CHASTAIN 5000/1 FIELD (all others) 1000/1 ## Notable betting matchups Kyle BUSCH - 150 Denny HAMLIN +130 Kyle BUSCH - 170 Martin TRUEX JR +145 Denny HAMLIN - 145 Chase ELLIOTT +125 Martin TRUEX JR - 125 Brad KESELOWSKI +105 Kyle BUSCH - 190 Brad KESELOWSKI +160 Kyle LARSON - 110 Jimmie JOHNSON - 110 Joey LOGANO - 110 Chase ELLIOTT - 110 Erik JONES - 110 Kurt BUSCH - 110 Alex BOWMAN - 110 William BYRON - 110 ## NASCAR at Martinsville bets to consider __Denny Hamlin over Kyle Busch (+130)__ At short tracks this season, Hamlin has five top-5s in five races and his average finish is 3.8. Hamlin has been the better driver these playoffs and at Martinsville throughout his career, so it comes as a surprise to see Busch a clear favorite in the betting matchup. Both drivers should challenge for the win, along with Martin Truex Jr., making Toyota to win (+125) another one of our favorites. __Chase Elliott over Brad Keselowski (-110)__ Last time the Cup Series was at Martinsville, Keselowski dominated. He led 446-of-500 laps en route to the March trophy. Only four other times has a race winner led more and it's naive to think it will happen twice in one season. Now, Keselowski has fallen out of championship contention and drivers have caught up to him using this week's package. Elliott has four top-10 finishes in eight Martinsville Speedway races, including a pair of top-five runs. His best showing came in March when he was runner-up to Keselowski and led 49 laps on the evening. ## NASCAR at Martinsville key stats <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table { font-size: 12px; border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; } .tableizer-table td { padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #CCC; } .tableizer-table th { background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold; } </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <thead><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Driver</th><th>Wins</th><th>Top 10s</th><th>Finish</th><th>Rating</th></tr></thead><tbody> <tr><td>Ky Busch</td><td>2</td><td>17</td><td>12</td><td>104.4</td></tr> <tr><td>Truex </td><td>0</td><td>11</td><td>18</td><td>79.7</td></tr> <tr><td>Hamlin</td><td>5</td><td>20</td><td>9.6</td><td>106.9</td></tr> <tr><td>Logano</td><td>1</td><td>9</td><td>13.4</td><td>94.2</td></tr> <tr><td>Harvick</td><td>1</td><td>18</td><td>15.1</td><td>94.3</td></tr> <tr><td>Elliott</td><td>0</td><td>4</td><td>14.8</td><td>89.7</td></tr> <tr><td>Larson</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>23.6</td><td>72.8</td></tr> <tr><td>Blaney</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>14</td><td>91</td></tr> <tr><td>Keselowski</td><td>2</td><td>13</td><td>11.3</td><td>99.6</td></tr> <tr><td>Byron</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>27</td><td>55.8</td></tr> <tr><td>Bowyer</td><td>1</td><td>16</td><td>13.5</td><td>91.7</td></tr> <tr><td>Bowman</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>23.1</td><td>58.3</td></tr> <tr><td>Almirola</td><td>0</td><td>4</td><td>20.9</td><td>69.9</td></tr> <tr><td>Ku Busch</td><td>2</td><td>6</td><td>20.8</td><td>80.5</td></tr> <tr><td>Newman</td><td>1</td><td>16</td><td>14.9</td><td>84.4</td></tr> <tr><td>Jones</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>22.2</td><td>66.9</td></tr> </tbody></table> *Statistical information from NASCAR Media releases was used in this report* __MORE:__ [How to win at betting on NASCAR in 2019](https://www.betchicago.com/how-to-bet-nascar-2019-stats-news)