Six drivers will compete for the final two spots in the Championship 4 during Sunday's penultimate race of the NASCAR season, the Bluegreen Vacations 500 at ISM Raceway in Phoenix (2:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. CT, NBC). Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick have already punched their tickets to next weekend's title race at Homestead and the odds to win at Phoenix point to the most-likely drivers to be joining them. Kyle Busch is 3/1 to win on Sunday at Phoenix, while teammate Denny Hamlin is 5/1. The highest-finishing Championship 4 driver at Homestead will be crowned the NASCAR Cup Series champion. But first Busch and Hamlin must avoid a wreck and hold off four other Round of 8 drivers if they are to advance. Here are the clinch scenarios for each driver, courtesy of NASCAR Media: Busch (4,113 points; 3/1 to win Sunday) – Would clinch with 53 points earned and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner (or a win by Joey Logano) he would clinch a position having earned 34 points. Joey Logano (4,111 points; 25/1) – Would clinch with 55 points earned and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner or a Kyle Busch victory, he would need to earn only 36 points. Hamlin (4,091 points; 5/1) – Would clinch with a win. Could clinch on points, with help. Ryan Blaney (4,088 points; 12/1) – Would clinch with a win. Could clinch on points, with help. Kyle Larson (4,088 points; 12/1) – Would clinch with a win. Could clinch on points, with help. Chase Elliott (4,033 points; 8/1) – Must win to earn a Championship 4 position. Busch hasn't won since Pocono in June, but he's the man to beat on Sunday. Only nine-time Phoenix winner Harvick has more top-10 finishes (22) at ISM Raceway than Busch (20) among the eight drivers still contending for a championship. ## The track and rules package Phoenix's flat 1-mile track is similar to Richmond and New Hampshire and it's no surprise the drivers who have had success there have been in contention at Phoenix. Kyle Busch and Truex have combined to win the past four races at Richmond, while Harvick has finished in the top-7 in seven of the past eight races there. Harvick has also won three of the past five races at New Hampshire and Busch has led laps in seven of the past eight races at New Hampshire. According to NASCAR, teams will run the 2019 rules package used at short tracks throughout the season, equipped with a 750 horsepower tapered-spacer engine. Truex has the most wins (5) with his package in 13 such races this season, while Hamlin has proven most reliable with 11 top-five finishes using this package. PJ1 traction compound (resin used to increase traction) was placed in both corners of Phoenix's high groove, giving drivers lane options from the middle of the track all the way to the wall. This benefits Kyle Larson, who is notorious for running high along the wall regardless of the track. It didn't come as a surprise to see Larson record the best [10-lap average](https://twitter.com/bobpockrass/status/1192924970898165760) in Friday's opening practice. ## Odds to win Bluegreen Vacations 500 at Phoenix Odds provided by Westgate SuperBook Kyle BUSCH 3/1 Denny HAMLIN 5/1 Martin TRUEX JR 5/1 Kevin HARVICK 5/1 Chase ELLIOTT 8/1 Ryan BLANEY 12/1 Kyle LARSON 12/1 Brad KESELOWSKI 16/1 Erik JONES 20/1 Joey LOGANO 25/1 Kurt BUSCH 25/1 Clint BOWYER 30/1 Aric ALMIROLA 50/1 William BYRON 50/1 Alex BOWMAN 50/1 Jimmie JOHNSON 60/1 Daniel SUAREZ 60/1 Ryan NEWMAN 200/1 Matt DiBENEDETTO 200/1 Austin DILLON 300/1 Ricky STENHOUSE JR 300/1 Paul MENARD 500/1 Chris BUESCHER 500/1 Daniel HEMRIC 1000/1 Darrell WALLACE JR 1000/1 Ty DILLON 1000/1 Ryan PREECE 2000/1 Michael McDOWELL 2000/1 David RAGAN 2000/1 John Hunter NEMECHEK 2000/1 Corey LAJOIE 5000/1 Landon CASSILL 5000/1 Reed SORENSON 5000/1 FIELD (all others) 1000/1 ## Notable driver matchups for NASCAR at Phoenix Kyle BUSCH - 140 Denny HAMLIN +120 Kyle BUSCH - 140 Martin TRUEX JR +120 Kyle BUSCH - 140 Kevin HARVICK +120 Denny HAMLIN - 110 Martin TRUEX JR - 110 Denny HAMLIN - 110 Kevin HARVICK - 110 Martin TRUEX JR - 110 Kevin HARVICK - 110 Ryan BLANEY - 110 Kyle LARSON - 110 Kyle LARSON - 140 Brad KESELOWSKI +120 Erik JONES - 135 Joey LOGANO +115 Jimmie JOHNSON - 110 Daniel SUAREZ - 110 Ryan NEWMAN - 110 Matt DiBENEDETTO - 110 ## NASCAR at Phoenix bets to consider __Denny Hamlin over Kevin Harvick (-110)__ Other than pride, Harvick has nothing to race for at Phoenix. He's locked into the Championship 4 race if he completes just one lap. As mentioned above, Hamlin is the most-consistent driver using the 750-HP package with 11 top-fives in 13 races. Hamlin’s 678 career laps led at Phoenix is more than the combined career totals of playoff contenders Joey Logano (296), Kyle Larson (69), Ryan Blaney (108) and Elliott (156). We expect another top-5 finish from Hamlin on Sunday. __Aric Almirola over Clint Bowyer (-110)__ Even when Almirola was with the under-funded team of Richard Petty Motorsports, his best track was always Phoenix. It still holds true, as he has recorded four straight finishes of ninth or better at the 1-mile track. Bowyer has been pretty average at the track with a 15.6 average finish over the past five at the track. Almirola also enters Phoenix with the better driver rating than Bowyer over the past six races overall. __Ryan Newman over Matt DiBenedetto (-110)__ DiBenedetto has been a great story this season, but he's struggled historically at Phoenix, New Hampshire and Richmond, failing to lead a lap in any races at those tracks in his career. Newman has excelled at those tracks in his long career, including this season. Over the past five races, Newman has an 11.0 average finish at Phoenix. He did struggle in Friday's opening practice, however, so keep an eye out on his positioning in Saturday's qualifying. ## NASCAR at Phoenix key stats <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table { font-size: 12px; border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; } .tableizer-table td { padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #CCC; } .tableizer-table th { background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold; } </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <thead><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Driver</th><th>Wins</th><th>Top 10s</th><th>Finish</th><th>Rating</th></tr></thead><tbody> <tr><td>Truex</td><td>0</td><td>10</td><td>15.9</td><td>88</td></tr> <tr><td>Harvick</td><td>9</td><td>22</td><td>9.3</td><td>110.8</td></tr> <tr><td>Ky Busch</td><td>3</td><td>20</td><td>11.1</td><td>103.9</td></tr> <tr><td>Logano</td><td>1</td><td>10</td><td>15.2</td><td>89</td></tr> <tr><td>Hamlin</td><td>1</td><td>16</td><td>11.3</td><td>97.1</td></tr> <tr><td>Blaney</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>15.9</td><td>89.2</td></tr> <tr><td>Larson</td><td>0</td><td>5</td><td>13.5</td><td>91.5</td></tr> <tr><td>Elliott</td><td>0</td><td>4</td><td>10.1</td><td>104.1</td></tr> <tr><td>Keselowski</td><td>0</td><td>9</td><td>13.8</td><td>93</td></tr> <tr><td>Byron</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>15</td><td>78.4</td></tr> <tr><td>Bowyer</td><td>0</td><td>7</td><td>18.7</td><td>77.3</td></tr> <tr><td>Bowman</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>28.1</td><td>65.3</td></tr> <tr><td>Almirola</td><td>0</td><td>5</td><td>14.9</td><td>76.1</td></tr> <tr><td>Ku Busch</td><td>1</td><td>19</td><td>14</td><td>95.2</td></tr> <tr><td>Newman</td><td>2</td><td>12</td><td>16.7</td><td>86.1</td></tr> <tr><td>Jones</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>14.3</td><td>85.2</td></tr> </tbody></table> *Statistical information from NASCAR Media releases was used in this report* __MORE:__ [How to win at betting on NASCAR in 2019](https://www.betchicago.com/how-to-bet-nascar-2019-stats-news)