If the Raptors manage to upend the Warriors in the NBA Finals, it wouldn't just be a betting upset -- it'd be one of the biggest Finals upsets in NBA history. Golden State opened as a -275 favorite at the Westgate SuperBook on Sunday and are -300 as of Tuesday night, even with continued concerns about Kevin Durant's health. Those figures are even higher than the astronomical -200 that Westgate dealt for much of the year, before the rigors of the playoffs even began. The Raptors (+240) are massive underdogs to win this series even with home-court advantage, though they're -1 to win Game 1 in Toronto after opening as +1.5 dogs. Durant's official scratch for Thursday likely helps matters. But that's just one game. Should the Raps win the series in their first-ever Finals appearance, just how monumental of an upset would it be? __NBA Finals series price:__ [Warriors big favorites against Raptors looking to three-peat](https://www.betchicago.com/nba-finals-series-price-warriors-favored-against-raptors) ## Plight of the underdog According to data provided by [Sports Odds History](https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nba-playoffs-series/?y=all&o=s&fv=&hv=&fd=&rd=fnl), NBA Finals series favorites are 33-14 since 1969 (the earliest year tracked) and 14-6 in the last 20 years. They haven't been profitable the past two decades (-$179.35 return on $100 bets), though neither have underdogs (-$120 return). Favorites of at least -200, though? Take it to the bank. Hold up, you may say. What about the Cleveland Cavaliers (+180) coming back from down 3-1 to stun these same Warriors (-220) in 2016? Or the Detroit Pistons (+500) shocking the Shaq-and-Kobe Lakers (-700) in 2004? You've probably forgotten Golden State (+170) ousting the Washington Bullets (-200) in 1975, but it happened. That's it. That's the full list. Since 1969, NBA Finals series favorites of at least -200 are an astounding 26-3, with a 25-2 run since 1976. Favorites of at least -300, like the Warriors as of Tuesday, are 13-1 all-time. And if the Raptors win, it'd be the second-biggest upset by series price in the available data set since 1969. You can't simply "throw out" the Cavs' 3-1 comeback, but it's also the only time that's happened in NBA history. Without it, favorites are on a 5-0 run, and -200 favorites would have won eight straight. That's good news for those laying the price on Golden State...if you can forget what happened in 2016. __NBA championship odds:__ [Is field closing gap on Warriors?](https://www.betchicago.com/nba-championship-odds-warriors-vs-field) ## Does home-court advantage matter? This year marks a statistical anomaly in NBA Finals betting: the home team is the underdog. That's only happened once this century, when the 2008 Boston Celtics (+160) beat the Lakers (-180) in six games. The past two times involved Michael Jordan's Bulls winning twice as road chalk (1993, 1998), with Magic Johnson's Lakers splitting two road series (1985, 1989) before then. The data is muddied by the fact that favorites almost always have a better record (and thus home-court advantage). But in a vacuum, it does matter. Nine of the past 12 Finals winners had home court, including three Golden State wins in four tries. Home teams are also 15-4 all-time in Game 7 in the NBA Finals, should it get that far. Only three Finals have gone to Game 7 in the past 23 years. Only four have ended in sweeps. Odds are it'll end somewhere in the middle, and with the Warriors claiming at least one road game in 19 consecutive series, home court may be the only way Toronto has a chance in this series. __NBA Finals MVP odds:__ [Steph Curry heavily favored to win award for first time](https://www.betchicago.com/nba-finals-mvp-odds-steph-curry-kawhi-leonard) ## So can the Raptors win the series? Precedent and trends are only part of the equation in handicapping any series, including this year's Finals. Only four teams have seen higher than +200 odds in the NBA Finals since 2006. Toronto is the fifth. But there are legitimate reasons to believe in this group in its first-ever title trip. Start with Durant's health, which will leave him sidelined for Game 1 and possibly longer. The Warriors have been money without him, though [oddsmakers are wary of the idea](https://www.betchicago.com/warriors-without-kevin-durant-vegas-oddsmaker) that Golden State is better with him. They're also skeptical that he returns to this series at all. Still, the Warriors haven't lost a playoff series since that 2016 collapse to Cleveland and are playing at a level similar to their three previous championship runs. It'd likely take a superhuman effort (like LeBron James in 2016) to beat them. Without Durant, Leonard has a serious case to make as the best player in this series. Leonard could have ended the Warriors' reign in 2017, when his Spurs were up 22 in the third quarter of Game 1 in the West Finals. You know the rest: Zaza Pachulia stepped underneath his foot, the Warriors roared back to win the game, series and title and Leonard never again reached elite levels with the Spurs. He's back to those heights in Toronto, where he's put together a masterful playoff performance that includes burying a Game 7 buzzer-beater, erasing the MVP favorite on defense and carrying his side with 32.5 points per game in the last two rounds. He's won a Finals MVP before, and he may need a historic performance to lift his team to a historic win. If he does, NBA bettors could prosper like they rarely have before. __NBA free agency odds:__ [Raptors, Clippers in race for Kawhi Leonard](https://www.betchicago.com/nba-free-agency-odds-kawhi-leonard-raptors-clippers) | [Kyrie Irving to Brooklyn?](https://www.betchicago.com/nba-free-agency-odds-kyrie-irving-dangelo-russell-nets) ## NBA Finals betting history (past 20 years) *Data provided by Sports Odds History; ^ denotes home team* <style type="text/css"> </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <thead><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>YEAR</th><th>WINNER</th><th>LOSER</th><th>RESULT</th></tr></thead><tbody> <tr><td>2018</td><td>Golden State Warriors^ (-1075)</td><td>Cleveland Cavaliers (+688)</td><td>4-0</td></tr> <tr><td>2017</td><td>Golden State Warriors^ (-300)</td><td>Cleveland Cavaliers (+250)</td><td>4-1</td></tr> <tr><td>2016</td><td>Cleveland Cavaliers (+180)</td><td>Golden State Warriors^ (-220)</td><td>4-3</td></tr> <tr><td>2015</td><td>Golden State Warriors^ (-220)</td><td>Cleveland Cavaliers (+190)</td><td>4-2</td></tr> <tr><td>2014</td><td>San Antonio Spurs^ (-155)</td><td>Miami Heat (+135)</td><td>4-1</td></tr> <tr><td>2013</td><td>Miami Heat^ (-220)</td><td>San Antonio Spurs (+180)</td><td>4-3</td></tr> <tr><td>2012</td><td>Miami Heat (+155)</td><td>Oklahoma City Thunder^ (-175)</td><td>4-1</td></tr> <tr><td>2011</td><td>Dallas Mavericks (+155)</td><td>Miami Heat^ (-175)</td><td>4-2</td></tr> <tr><td>2010</td><td>Los Angeles Lakers^ (-190)</td><td>Boston Celtics (+165)</td><td>4-3</td></tr> <tr><td>2009</td><td>Los Angeles Lakers^ (-280)</td><td>Orlando Magic (+240)</td><td>4-1</td></tr> <tr><td>2008</td><td>Boston Celtics^ (+160)</td><td>Los Angeles Lakers (-180)</td><td>4-2</td></tr> <tr><td>2007</td><td>San Antonio Spurs^ (-450)</td><td>Cleveland Cavaliers (+360)</td><td>4-0</td></tr> <tr><td>2006</td><td>Miami Heat (+130)</td><td>Dallas Mavericks^ (-150)</td><td>4-2</td></tr> <tr><td>2005</td><td>San Antonio Spurs^ (-250)</td><td>Detroit Pistons (+200)</td><td>4-3</td></tr> <tr><td>2004</td><td>Detroit Pistons (+500)</td><td>Los Angeles Lakers^ (-700)</td><td>4-1</td></tr> <tr><td>2003</td><td>San Antonio Spurs^ (-330)</td><td>New Jersey Nets (+260)</td><td>4-2</td></tr> <tr><td>2002</td><td>Los Angeles Lakers^ (-750)</td><td>New Jersey Nets (+550)</td><td>4-0</td></tr> <tr><td>2001</td><td>Los Angeles Lakers^ (-2000)</td><td>Philadelphia 76ers (+1600)</td><td>4-1</td></tr> <tr><td>2000</td><td>Los Angeles Lakers^ (-800)</td><td>Indiana Pacers (+550)</td><td>4-2</td></tr> <tr><td>1999</td><td>San Antonio Spurs^ (-900)</td><td>New York Knicks (+600)</td><td>4-1</td></tr> </tbody></table> __MORE:__ [Our complete NBA betting coverage](https://www.betchicago.com/nba-betting)