Bet Chicago Logo
  • NFL6AxA8ZrrIkUCay6Iekgs6k

    NFL news, odds, lines and wagering analysis

  • College FootballbW88wLUtXMeaeEOikGsU4

    College Football Betting

  • NBA6u9BKVTY2ckW2iOMgUiwyc

    NBA Betting Lines, Odds, Spreads and Wagering Analysis from BetChicago

  • NCAA BBgNg3S92MjCKu0CAOYwiWg

    NCAA Basketball Betting Lines, Odds, Spreads and Analysis

    • Home
    • News
    • Schedule
    • Futures
    • Standings
  • Podcasts2178mk1KlAoY7g2jH8KrMz

    Football betting podcasts

  • MLB5nf5uAz2yAo6IMAsckq8Qa

    MLB Betting Lines, Odds and Wagering and Fantasy Analysis

    • Home
    • News
    • Scoreboard
    • Schedule
    • Standings
    • Odds
  • Golf7A0eylzER2uqQY2kcQqyWS

    Golf Betting

    • Home
    • News
    • Leaderboard
    • Schedule
    • World Rankings
    • Odds
  • ...
    • Sports Betting Industry News5bPejKTlZeuEsG42oyeCGe

      Sports Betting Industry News

    • Betting Guides4NyqzWkxBQXcG58JmZBGxp

      Sports betting glossaries, tutorials on advanced metrics and more

    • Soccer7d0trXzol2uICOEoIqs0Ea

      Soccer Betting News

    • NASCAR2nwagNnke8E0Q0kce2UI2M

      NASCAR Betting News, Information and Insight

    • Horse Racing1cG3403troWKYKqu8yAMuE

      Horse Racing News, Odds and Picks

    • UFC2FbKCPn5duoQeCMGMYgKEo

      UFC and MMA Betting

    • BoxingO0rvFyckMMMiG6eYKGaOc

      BetChicago Boxing Coverage

    • NHLrsDGYfODbqOaqYKaww4iq

      NHL Betting Lines, Odds and Analysis

    • Politics and election oddsnSyqwIVtZNj6DuXjn0SLb

      Odds and betting information for U.S. elections

    • Entertainment4gzKSgVG64EI2yEU2CYGOY

      Entertainment Betting Lines, Odds and Analysis

    • Fantasy Football7BTPbPIdu8iaYiiE46IQok

      Fantasy Football Analysis

    • Tennis4EpTm7Ht8sMK4g8CKwQCe0

      Tennis Odds and Betting Analysis

    • Home1GbgAvLoZC4E44cMUg2YMe

      BetChicago - Illinois | Sports Betting News, Odds, Lines, & Contests

NBA

NBA Finals betting history: Can Raptors defy odds vs. heavily favored Warriors?

NBA Finals betting history: Can Raptors defy odds vs. heavily favored Warriors?

If the Raptors manage to upend the Warriors in this year's NBA Finals, it wouldn't just be a betting upset -- it'd be one of the biggest Finals upsets in NBA history.

C Jackson Cowart
Staff Writer
//images.ctfassets.net/p0ykbbcw3bn6/1qcCZECtAGp4wS8pRJ0ksw/6be2909444c75808e3bbb2153e20f05c/C_Jackson_Cowart_01.jpg.png
7z1R5FZzByf2T6ZoObBalT
@CJacksonCowart
C Jackson Cowart is an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer (NC), The San Diego Union-Tribune (CA) and The Times Herald-Record (NY). Jackson is a graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Follow him @CJacksonCowart
If the Raptors manage to upend the Warriors in the NBA Finals, it wouldn't just be a betting upset -- it'd be one of the biggest Finals upsets in NBA history. Golden State opened as a -275 favorite at the Westgate SuperBook on Sunday and are -300 as of Tuesday night, even with continued concerns about Kevin Durant's health. Those figures are even higher than the astronomical -200 that Westgate dealt for much of the year, before the rigors of the playoffs even began. The Raptors (+240) are massive underdogs to win this series even with home-court advantage, though they're -1 to win Game 1 in Toronto after opening as +1.5 dogs. Durant's official scratch for Thursday likely helps matters. But that's just one game. Should the Raps win the series in their first-ever Finals appearance, just how monumental of an upset would it be? __NBA Finals series price:__ [Warriors big favorites against Raptors looking to three-peat](https://www.betchicago.com/nba-finals-series-price-warriors-favored-against-raptors) ## Plight of the underdog According to data provided by [Sports Odds History](https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nba-playoffs-series/?y=all&o=s&fv=&hv=&fd=&rd=fnl), NBA Finals series favorites are 33-14 since 1969 (the earliest year tracked) and 14-6 in the last 20 years. They haven't been profitable the past two decades (-$179.35 return on $100 bets), though neither have underdogs (-$120 return). Favorites of at least -200, though? Take it to the bank. Hold up, you may say. What about the Cleveland Cavaliers (+180) coming back from down 3-1 to stun these same Warriors (-220) in 2016? Or the Detroit Pistons (+500) shocking the Shaq-and-Kobe Lakers (-700) in 2004? You've probably forgotten Golden State (+170) ousting the Washington Bullets (-200) in 1975, but it happened. That's it. That's the full list. Since 1969, NBA Finals series favorites of at least -200 are an astounding 26-3, with a 25-2 run since 1976. Favorites of at least -300, like the Warriors as of Tuesday, are 13-1 all-time. And if the Raptors win, it'd be the second-biggest upset by series price in the available data set since 1969. You can't simply "throw out" the Cavs' 3-1 comeback, but it's also the only time that's happened in NBA history. Without it, favorites are on a 5-0 run, and -200 favorites would have won eight straight. That's good news for those laying the price on Golden State...if you can forget what happened in 2016. __NBA championship odds:__ [Is field closing gap on Warriors?](https://www.betchicago.com/nba-championship-odds-warriors-vs-field) ## Does home-court advantage matter? This year marks a statistical anomaly in NBA Finals betting: the home team is the underdog. That's only happened once this century, when the 2008 Boston Celtics (+160) beat the Lakers (-180) in six games. The past two times involved Michael Jordan's Bulls winning twice as road chalk (1993, 1998), with Magic Johnson's Lakers splitting two road series (1985, 1989) before then. The data is muddied by the fact that favorites almost always have a better record (and thus home-court advantage). But in a vacuum, it does matter. Nine of the past 12 Finals winners had home court, including three Golden State wins in four tries. Home teams are also 15-4 all-time in Game 7 in the NBA Finals, should it get that far. Only three Finals have gone to Game 7 in the past 23 years. Only four have ended in sweeps. Odds are it'll end somewhere in the middle, and with the Warriors claiming at least one road game in 19 consecutive series, home court may be the only way Toronto has a chance in this series. __NBA Finals MVP odds:__ [Steph Curry heavily favored to win award for first time](https://www.betchicago.com/nba-finals-mvp-odds-steph-curry-kawhi-leonard) ## So can the Raptors win the series? Precedent and trends are only part of the equation in handicapping any series, including this year's Finals. Only four teams have seen higher than +200 odds in the NBA Finals since 2006. Toronto is the fifth. But there are legitimate reasons to believe in this group in its first-ever title trip. Start with Durant's health, which will leave him sidelined for Game 1 and possibly longer. The Warriors have been money without him, though [oddsmakers are wary of the idea](https://www.betchicago.com/warriors-without-kevin-durant-vegas-oddsmaker) that Golden State is better with him. They're also skeptical that he returns to this series at all. Still, the Warriors haven't lost a playoff series since that 2016 collapse to Cleveland and are playing at a level similar to their three previous championship runs. It'd likely take a superhuman effort (like LeBron James in 2016) to beat them. Without Durant, Leonard has a serious case to make as the best player in this series. Leonard could have ended the Warriors' reign in 2017, when his Spurs were up 22 in the third quarter of Game 1 in the West Finals. You know the rest: Zaza Pachulia stepped underneath his foot, the Warriors roared back to win the game, series and title and Leonard never again reached elite levels with the Spurs. He's back to those heights in Toronto, where he's put together a masterful playoff performance that includes burying a Game 7 buzzer-beater, erasing the MVP favorite on defense and carrying his side with 32.5 points per game in the last two rounds. He's won a Finals MVP before, and he may need a historic performance to lift his team to a historic win. If he does, NBA bettors could prosper like they rarely have before. __NBA free agency odds:__ [Raptors, Clippers in race for Kawhi Leonard](https://www.betchicago.com/nba-free-agency-odds-kawhi-leonard-raptors-clippers) | [Kyrie Irving to Brooklyn?](https://www.betchicago.com/nba-free-agency-odds-kyrie-irving-dangelo-russell-nets) ## NBA Finals betting history (past 20 years) *Data provided by Sports Odds History; ^ denotes home team* <style type="text/css"> </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <thead><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>YEAR</th><th>WINNER</th><th>LOSER</th><th>RESULT</th></tr></thead><tbody> <tr><td>2018</td><td>Golden State Warriors^ (-1075)</td><td>Cleveland Cavaliers (+688)</td><td>4-0</td></tr> <tr><td>2017</td><td>Golden State Warriors^ (-300)</td><td>Cleveland Cavaliers (+250)</td><td>4-1</td></tr> <tr><td>2016</td><td>Cleveland Cavaliers (+180)</td><td>Golden State Warriors^ (-220)</td><td>4-3</td></tr> <tr><td>2015</td><td>Golden State Warriors^ (-220)</td><td>Cleveland Cavaliers (+190)</td><td>4-2</td></tr> <tr><td>2014</td><td>San Antonio Spurs^ (-155)</td><td>Miami Heat (+135)</td><td>4-1</td></tr> <tr><td>2013</td><td>Miami Heat^ (-220)</td><td>San Antonio Spurs (+180)</td><td>4-3</td></tr> <tr><td>2012</td><td>Miami Heat (+155)</td><td>Oklahoma City Thunder^ (-175)</td><td>4-1</td></tr> <tr><td>2011</td><td>Dallas Mavericks (+155)</td><td>Miami Heat^ (-175)</td><td>4-2</td></tr> <tr><td>2010</td><td>Los Angeles Lakers^ (-190)</td><td>Boston Celtics (+165)</td><td>4-3</td></tr> <tr><td>2009</td><td>Los Angeles Lakers^ (-280)</td><td>Orlando Magic (+240)</td><td>4-1</td></tr> <tr><td>2008</td><td>Boston Celtics^ (+160)</td><td>Los Angeles Lakers (-180)</td><td>4-2</td></tr> <tr><td>2007</td><td>San Antonio Spurs^ (-450)</td><td>Cleveland Cavaliers (+360)</td><td>4-0</td></tr> <tr><td>2006</td><td>Miami Heat (+130)</td><td>Dallas Mavericks^ (-150)</td><td>4-2</td></tr> <tr><td>2005</td><td>San Antonio Spurs^ (-250)</td><td>Detroit Pistons (+200)</td><td>4-3</td></tr> <tr><td>2004</td><td>Detroit Pistons (+500)</td><td>Los Angeles Lakers^ (-700)</td><td>4-1</td></tr> <tr><td>2003</td><td>San Antonio Spurs^ (-330)</td><td>New Jersey Nets (+260)</td><td>4-2</td></tr> <tr><td>2002</td><td>Los Angeles Lakers^ (-750)</td><td>New Jersey Nets (+550)</td><td>4-0</td></tr> <tr><td>2001</td><td>Los Angeles Lakers^ (-2000)</td><td>Philadelphia 76ers (+1600)</td><td>4-1</td></tr> <tr><td>2000</td><td>Los Angeles Lakers^ (-800)</td><td>Indiana Pacers (+550)</td><td>4-2</td></tr> <tr><td>1999</td><td>San Antonio Spurs^ (-900)</td><td>New York Knicks (+600)</td><td>4-1</td></tr> </tbody></table> __MORE:__ [Our complete NBA betting coverage](https://www.betchicago.com/nba-betting)
2019-05-29T01:03:03.129Z2019-05-28T18:01-07:00
  • NBA Finals betting history: Can Raptors defy odds vs. heavily favored Warriors?

    • The story of Cheryl White, the first black female jockey in U.S. horse racing history

    • The marvelous comeback story of jockey David Cohen

    • College football advanced stats glossary: How to use today's metrics in sports betting

    • The Legend of Silky Sullivan, the greatest come-from-behind horse in racing history

    • No resolution in sight for Sammy Sosa's fractured relationship with Cubs

    • Odds to win a golf major in 2020: Rickie Fowler, Tiger Woods each 5/1

    • NBA Finals betting history: Can Raptors defy odds vs. heavily favored Warriors?

    • AFC weather report: Philip Rivers' cold-weather stats cast interesting light on Patriots vs. Chargers

    • MLB division odds, 2020 season win totals: White Sox tick up with transformative offseason

    • With 24-team playoff on horizon, NHL futures odds and series prices posted on betting boards

    • 20 questions during quarantine with Rufus Peabody: Pro bettor talks Coronavirus data, modeling the new home field and a bad beat that lasted two weeks

    • Illinois Sports Betting

    • Rickie Fowler win proves point but his 2019 major championship futures lack value

    • 2020 college football national championship odds: Nebraska still swimming with big boys

    • NASCAR at Martinsville odds, key stats, bets to consider: Kyle Busch on upset alert despite dominance at track

    • How ESPN's FPI win-loss simulations compare to betting win totals for college football's worst teams

    • Post-draft glance at betting odds indicate expectations high for Burrow, tempered for Tua

    • Fantasy football keeper leagues: Quarterbacks to hang on to, others to drop

    • How sportsbooks are adjusting to new NASCAR rule which can disqualify drivers on the spot

    • 20 questions during quarantine with sports betting attorney Daniel Wallach

    • AFC South division snapshot: Colts getting love from bettors, NFL pundits over reigning champ Texans

    • Fantasy football 2019: Tight end sleepers and busts

    • Saturday MLB betting preview: Cubs pitcher Jose Quintana's repertoire could prove key vs. Padres lineup

    • 2019 British Open odds update: Despite 3-shot deficit, Brooks Koepka heads into weekend as sole favorite

    • Fantasy football 2019: Wide receiver sleepers and busts

    • Friday MLB betting: Royals' Mike Montgomery a heavy underdog vs. Indians in first start since Cubs trade

    • 2019 British Open odds update: Longshot JB Holmes leads after Round 1, Tiger and Rory collapse

    • Fantasy football 2019: Running back sleepers and busts

    • NFC South division snapshot: Bettors riding Falcons over favored Saints

    • Fantasy football 2019 preview: Quarterback sleepers and busts

    • Saturday MLB betting preview: Low total signals OVER value with Mets' Noah Syndergaard vs. Marlins rookie Zac Gallen

    • 2019 Wimbledon men's final odds: Novak Djokovic favored to repeat vs. upset-minded Roger Federer

    • AFC West offseason snapshot: Chiefs fending off Chargers in top-heavy division

    • Thursday MLB betting preview: Lance Lynn, Rangers host Astros with upset potential out of All-Star break

    • Russell Westbrook trade odds moving with Heat, Bulls among possible fits

    • DeMarcus Cousins signing with Lakes has no impact on title odds

    • 5 teams whose NBA title odds could shift with Russell Westbrook trade

    • Clippers skyrocket up NBA oddsboard after landing Kawhi Leonard, Paul George; Lakers, Raptors falter

    • Saturday MLB betting preview: Giolito, White Sox home underdogs in rematch with Lester, Cubs

    • Cori 'Coco' Gauff, 15, favored to continue historic run at Wimbledon

    • Gold Cup final betting odds, props: Mexico favored over USA in first title meeting since 2011

    • Thursday MLB betting preview: Division rivals, playoff contenders highlight busy July 4th

    • NFC South player props: Can MVP emerge from star-studded division?

    • AFC South player props: Andrew Luck priced for regression after comeback success

    • Sunday Night Baseball betting preview: OVER in play with Braves eyeing Mets sweep

      • 2020 NFL Draft odds 2X95amlzTbATaKdnglGQT6

        2010 NFL Draft odds and betting information

      • 2020 NFL Playoffs odds, betting lines, analysis and insight19Cr8560G0TF5lcqygWyHU

        2020 NFL Playoff betting information and analysis

      • 2020 Oscars betting5oZGalUuNj4TmAasr1svad

        Betting odds, analysis and picks for the 2020 Oscars

      • 2020 World Series odds2kwzw7IsM1mk10hOsgjC1D

        2020 World Series odds

      • Chicago Bears14mPPILYpyg6sOWoQyKyuU

        Chicago Bears Betting

      • Chicago Bulls6NqSjORDhKSioMcWkk2gWg

        Bulls Betting Lines, Odds, Spreads and Wagering Information

      • 2019-20 college football bowl game odds, betting lines, picks3cxNagvYEMQmYugW0gWsmk

        2019-20 college football bowl game odds, betting lines, picks

      • Coronavirus' impact on sports betting3VmLnMFDo8ZCbc3XTTV5RG

        How the coronavirus is affecting the sports betting industry

      • Cubs4W58vIh9IkG6KiMEmOKcwe

        Chicago Cubs odds, lines and betting analysis

      • NBA 2019-20 season betting odds and analysislwSuFryrsiE8ca7XOOfEf

        NBA betting odds, lines and insight for the 2019-20 season

      • Fantasy football news, analysis and advice3YVUyLIiMgcQ88eeoMemaQ

        Fantasy football news, cheat sheets, analysis, and advise

      • Notre Dame Football1mSZTkIc5Gsy68ewWgImaO

        Notre Dame Odds and Betting

      • Super Bowl 54 odds, betting lines, props6hYwYjDkSZnKiRXD8P1XKk

        Super Bowl 54 odds, betting lines, props

      • Super Bowl 55 odds, betting lines, props RpsZWLyCVZ5JyaiDP3l9g

        Super Bowl 55 odds, betting lines, props

      • XFL betting odds, news and analysis3Oso75V3Q44gp8Bxcwiw13

        Betting lines and futures odds for the XFL

      Illinois Sports Betting News, Information and Insight
      Chicago sports betting news, odds and analysis
      <div><div><h3>Download the BetChicago app</h3><p>The latest version of the BetChicago app is available for download, and once you take that step, you’ll be a tap away from the most important news driving the betting market, research and analysis from our editorial team and a line into the knowledge and opinion of some of the country’s biggest and best oddsmakers. </p><p>You’ll also get the up-to-date futures odds, point spreads, moneylines and totals, as well as scores, schedules, matchups and more. </p><p>The app gives you quick access to our <a href="https://betchicago.chalkline.com/">free-to-play contests</a> that offer the chance to win cash and other great prizes. </p><p>Also, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/userregistration">create a BetChicago account</a> to receive email updates and be able to customize notifications, save stories, select your favorite teams and players and more. Download the BetChicago app at<a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/betchicago/id1404462108?mt=8"> iTunes</a> or <a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.betchicago.app&hl=en_UShttps://itunes.apple.com/us/app/betchicago/id1404462108?mt=8">Google Play</a> today.</p></div></div>
      <div><p>As legalized sports betting expands, so too are the wagering options available to gamblers. Sportsbooks are getting more and more creative in what they’re posting on their oddsboards. While traditional pre-event bets – such as point spreads, moneylines and totals – remain popular, live betting is become a larger part of the sports betting experience.  Also, prop bets aren’t just for the Super Bowl anymore. In fact, there are props to wager on for practically any sporting event around the world.</p><p>Whether it’s on the <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/nfl-betting">NFL</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/college-football-betting">college football</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/mlb-betting/home">MLB</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/nba-betting">NBA</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/ncaa-basketball-betting">NCAA basketball</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/nhl-betting">NHL</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/soccer-betting">soccer</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/nascar-betting">NASCAR</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/ufc-betting">UFC</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/boxing">boxing</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/horse-racing-odds">horse racing</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/tennis-odds">tennis</a>, entertainment or eSports, it’s difficult to win long term betting on sports. That’s why it’s important to read up on the news that impacts the markets, dig deep into advanced statistics and hear from oddsmakers about how and why lines are moving.</p><p>Here at BetChicago, we follow sports betting from a national and even international perspective, but we put a special emphasis on Chicago, Illinois and the Midwest region. That means, for example, if you’re interested in where the futures odds of the <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/bears-betting">Bears</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/cubs-betting-odds">Cubs</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/white-sox-betting-odds">White Sox</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/bulls-betting-odds">Bulls</a> and <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/blackhawks-betting-odds">Blackhawks</a> stand, look no further. If you want insight and analysis about the betting lines for <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/big-ten-football-betting-odds">Big Ten football</a> or <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/big-ten-college-basketball-betting-lines-odds-trends-predictions">basketball</a> or <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/notre-dame-football-odds-betting">Notre Dame</a> sports, you’re at the right place.</p></div>