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New Year's Eve college football bowls betting lines, trends, picks: Public piling on Jimbo Fisher, Aggies

New Year's Eve college football bowls betting lines, trends, picks: Public piling on Jimbo Fisher, Aggies

Nearly 80 percent of the betting market is backing Texas A&M in Monday night's Gator Bowl against a NC State team playing without two of its key players. In other bowl games on New Year's Eve, Justin Herbert leads Oregon vs. Michigan State and former Big 12 rivals collide in Memphis.

Joe Rodgers
Senior Staff Writer
BetChicago
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@RodgersBC
Joe Rodgers is a sports analyst specializing in betting odds and fantasy. He has spent time with Perform Group Media, earned a master's degree, and is even a certified pace car driver.
Six college football bowl games fall on Monday aka New Year's Eve and the last day of the 2018 calendar should be a treat for bettors with ample choices to choose from beginning at 11 a.m. CT and ending with the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville. Nearly 80 percent of the betting market is backing Texas A&M in Monday's nightcap against a NC State team playing without two of its key players and an offensive line coach. Wolfpack leading tackler Germaine Pratt and No. 1 wide receiver Kelvin Harmon are choosing to sit out of the Gator Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft. While Harmon is a big loss, the Pack still have draft prospect Ryan Finley under center to lead an offense ranked 13th in passing S&P+. How many drives Finley gets with what field position is a serious storyline in this game as the Aggies finished second in the nation behind Army in the time of possession and boast the Ray Guy winner Braden Mann as the nation’s top punter. __MORE:__ [Northwestern vs. Utah Holiday Bowl preview](https://www.betchicago.com/holiday-bowl-betting-lines-trends-prediction-northwestern-underdog-ats-utah) Throw in an Aggies passing downs sack rate that is 15th-best nationally and a defensive back havoc rate ranking of 16th and it's easy to see why bettors like the Aggies, who went 8-4 SU and ATS on the season. In two of the other five bowl games on New Year's Eve, Justin Herbert leads Oregon vs. Michigan State and former Big 12 rivals collide in Memphis in a potential shootout. __$5,000 up for grabs:__ [Free-to-enter five-day pick 'em contest](https://betchicago.chalkline.com/games/five-days-of-football-for-5k) # 2018 college football bowl game odds for New Year's Eve ## Military Bowl betting lines, odds and prediction 11 a.m. CT on ESPN from Annapolis, Mary. ### Cincinatti vs. Virginia Tech odds __Point spread:__ Cincinatti -5.5 __Total:__ 53.5 __Betting line movement and games notes:__ Behind a top-20 S&P+ defense, Cincinatti opened as a 6.5-point favorite at the Westgate before a small wave of sharp action dropped the line to -5. The Bearcats haven't won a bowl game since 2012 but have allowed the seventh-fewest points per game in the nation this season (16.1). The UNDER could be in play but Virginia Tech uncharacteristically has given up an average of 30.7 points per game. The total has stayed between 54 and 53 most of the past week. __S&P+ prediction:__ Cincinnati 31, Virginia Tech 23 __Note:__ S&P+ rankings are an advanced data set of tempo- and opponent-adjusted components of the five factors of college football: Efficiency, explosiveness, field position and finishing drives. Per creator Bill Connelly, a fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates. __Play and win:__ [Join our free contests](https://betchicago.chalkline.com/) ## Cincinatti football betting records, stats 2018 SU record: 10-2 2018 ATS record: 7-5 2018 O/U record: 5-7 S&P+ rank: 32 Off. S&P+ rank: 74 Def. S&P+ rank: 19 Special Teams S&P+ rank: 76 ## Virginia Tech football betting records, stats 2018 SU record: 6-6 2018 ATS record: 5-7 2018 O/U record: 7-4-1 S&P+ rank: 69 Off. S&P+ rank: 48 Def. S&P+ rank: 79 Special Teams S&P+ rank: 45 __MORE:__ [Clemson suspensions not swaying bettors](https://www.betchicago.com/cotton-bowl-betting-lines-trends-predictions-notre-dame-clemson-suspensions) ## Cincinatti vs. Virginia Tech Military Bowl betting trends Bearcats only covered two of last six games after starting 5-1 ATS and are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. OVER is 18-7-1 in Hokies' last 26 non-conference games. Hokies are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. ## Hyundai Sun Bowl betting lines, odds and prediction 1 p.m. CT on CBS from El Paso ### Stanford vs. Pitt odds __Point spread:__ Stanford -4.5 __Total:__ 52.5 __Betting line movement and games notes:__ Stanford star RB Bryce Love will miss the Sun Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft but the Cardinal have been fine without him this season with thier jump-ball passing attack. Pitt is 95th in defending explosiveness on passing downs but will hope to keep the Cardinal off the field with its two-headed rush attack of Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall Jr., who ran for more than 1,000 yards this season. Stanford has covered the point spread in seven of their last nine bowl appearances but it was Pitt receiving some sharp action, dropping the opening number from 6.5 to 4.5 as of Friday's writing. __S&P+ prediction:__ Stanford 35, Pitt 25 ## Stanford football betting records, stats 2018 SU record: 8-4 2018 ATS record: 7-4-1 2018 O/U record: 7-5 S&P+ rank: 27 Off. S&P+ rank: 22 Def. S&P+ rank: 51 Special Teams S&P+ rank: 10 ## Pitt football betting records, stats 2018 SU record: 7-6 2018 ATS record: 7-6 2018 O/U record: 5-8 S&P+ rank: 67 Off. S&P+ rank: 64 Def. S&P+ rank: 67 Special Teams S&P+ rank: 49 ## Stanford vs. Pitt Sun Bowl betting trends Pitt is 0-3 SU and ATS in its last three bowls, while Stanford is 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in its last four bowls. The Cardinal ended the season 4-1-1 ATS and are 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. OVER is 7-1 in Stanford's last eight neutral-site games. ## RedBox Bowl betting lines, odds and prediction 2 p.m. CT on FOX from Santa Clara, Calif. ### Michigan State vs. Oregon odds __Point spread:__ Oregon -2.5 __Total:__ 48 __Betting line movement and games notes:__ Strength on strength collide as Oregon QB Justin Herbert plays in his first game since announcing he will return to the Ducks instead of turning pro. He'll face a stiff test against a Spartans unit ranking 11th against passing explosiveness and third in points per scoring opportunity but Sparty will be without cornerback Justin Layne. Michigan State is even better against the run, ranking first in stuff rate and efficiency and it's no surprise the UNDER is 7-0 in Spartans' last seven games overall. The total hasn't increased about 48 since opening. __S&P+ prediction:__ Michigan State 26, Oregon 24 ## Michigan State football betting records, stats 2018 SU record: 7-5 2018 ATS record: 4-8 2018 O/U record: 4-8 S&P+ rank: 35 Off. S&P+ rank: 114 Def. S&P+ rank: 2 Special Teams S&P+ rank: 53 ## Oregon football betting records, stats 2018 SU record: 8-4 2018 ATS record: 4-8 2018 O/U record: 5-6-1 S&P+ rank: 47 Off. S&P+ rank: 23 Def. S&P+ rank: 69 Special Teams S&P+ rank: 103 ## Michigan State vs. Oregon RedBox Bowl betting trends Mark Dantonio is 5-1 SU and ATS in his last six bowls with Sparty, while Oregon is 0-3 SU and ATS in its last three bowls. Spartans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog of less than a field goal. Ducks 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games and are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win. ## Liberty Bowl betting lines, odds and prediction 2:45 p.m. CT on ESPN from Memphis ### Missouri vs. Oklahoma State odds __Point spread:__ Missouri -9.5 __Total:__ 74 __Betting line movement and games notes:__ The Cowboys rank 10th in offensive S&P+ but are 84th on defense. Mike Gundy's crew has averaged 48 points per game in wins and allowed 39 points per game in losses. Okie State is one of the more public underdogs of the bowl season but its not stopping the line to running in Missouri's favor with QB Drew Lock looking to increase his draft stock. The Tigers have moved from an 8.5-point favorite to 9.5 from Thursday to Friday at the Westgate. __S&P+ prediction:__ Missouri 35, Oklahoma State 31 ## Missouri football betting records, stats 2018 SU record: 8-4 2018 ATS record: 7-5 2018 O/U record: 6-5-1 S&P+ rank: 16 Off. S&P+ rank: 15 Def. S&P+ rank: 38 Special Teams S&P+ rank: 38 ## Oklahoma State football betting records, stats 2018 SU record: 6-6 2018 ATS record: 6-6 2018 O/U record: 8-4 S&P+ rank: 28 Off. S&P+ rank: 10 Def. S&P+ rank: 84 Special Teams S&P+ rank: 54 ## Missouri vs. Oklahoma State Liberty Bowl betting trends Mike Gundy was 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season and is 10-3 ATS in that role since 2015. The Cowboys have also won and covered three of their last four bowl games. OVER is 9-1 in Cowboys' last 10 games following a ATS loss. OVER is 4-1 in Tigers' last five games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Tigers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in December. __Also read:__ ['Public all over Notre Dame' vs. Clemson, oddsmaker says](https://www.betchicago.com/college-football-playoff-odds-betting-lines-notre-dame-clemson) ## Gator Bowl betting lines, odds and prediction 6:30 p.m. CT on ESPN from Jacksonville ### NC State vs. Texas A&M odds __Point spread:__ Texas A&M -7 __Total:__ 57 __Betting line movement and games notes:__ Texas A&M opened as a 4.5-point favorite and sharp action took the Aggies to 6.5 on Dec. 11. Ever since, the public has piled on the Aggies as they look to win their fourth straight game. The total reached as high as 59 but has quickly moved down the past seven days, reaching 56.0 on Friday. __S&P+ prediction:__ Texas A&M 32, NC State 29 ## NC State football betting records, stats 2018 SU record: 9-3 2018 ATS record: 6-6 2018 O/U record: 6-6 S&P+ rank: 30 Off. S&P+ rank: 21 Def. S&P+ rank: 52 Special Teams S&P+ rank: 36 ## Texas A&M football betting records, stats 2018 SU record: 8-4 2018 ATS record: 8-4 2018 O/U record: 6-6 S&P+ rank: 19 Off. S&P+ rank: 19 Def. S&P+ rank: 42 Special Teams S&P+ rank: 26 ## NC State vs. Texas A&M Gator Bowl betting trends Aggies are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. OVER is 6-0 in Wolfpack's last six bowl games. Wolfpack are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 bowl games but are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
2018-12-28T23:11:52.985Z2018-12-28T17:00-05:00
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