Here, we offer our staff picks against the spread for Sunday’s conference championship games, and two of us agree on the total for the day’s first kickoff, Rams at Saints for the NFC title. As for the AFC showdown between the Patriots and Chiefs, we have a split of opinion, with two of us laying the points with the home favorite and one of us taking them with the road underdog. The staffer alone on New England, however, brings a stellar record into the penultimate weekend of the 2018-19 NFL season. Betting lines listed here were available in Las Vegas on Friday morning. # Chris Mascaro ## [Rams at Saints UNDER 57, 2:05 p.m. CT, Fox](https://www.betchicago.com/rams-saints-betting-lines-records-ats-pick-total-rematch-nfc-title-preview) I've made 38 picks this season (21-14-3 record), and this is the first time I've made a pick on the O/U, but this one is screaming UNDER. The only shot Los Angeles (14-3, 8-7-2 ATS) has to win is to avoid a shootout with Drew Brees in the Superdome, so that means a healthy dose of clock-eating possessions featuring Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson, as we [saw last week](https://www.therams.com/video/how-the-rams-ran-all-over-the-cowboys-in-nfc-divisional-round) against the Cowboys. For the Saints (14-3, 10-7 ATS), why hurry it up when you're at home and your opponent is content to grind the clock down? New Orleans has Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram (and gadget wildcat QB Taysom Hill), so they too can play ground-and-pound. The Saints defense allowed only 250 yards to the Eagles last week, and while the Rams have more dynamic playmakers, Jared Goff has failed to throw for more than 220 yards in five of his last six games, with six TD passes and six INTs in that span. The Saints also had the league's second-ranked rush defense in terms of yards per carry in the regular season (3.6). ## [Patriots (+3) at Chiefs, 5:40 p.m. CT, CBS](https://www.betchicago.com/patriots-chiefs-betting-lines-pick-trends-sharps-preview-afc-championship) I've gone back and forth on this one, but if this game is close (and I expect it will be), how can you not go with the guys who've done it time and time again over a coach who's 12-13 in the playoffs and a quarterback who's never been there before? New England (12-5, 10-7 ATS) has been a poor road team (3-5 SU and ATS), but the Miami game should've gone its way, you could argue the same for the Pittsburgh game, and the two early in the season in Jacksonville and Detroit were to motivated teams in a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game and against their former defensive coordinator, respectively. Also, remember the Saints' first two games of the season, when they lost in the Dome to the Bucs and nearly lost to the Browns? Nobody seems to be talking about that. The Chiefs (13-4, 10-6-1 ATS) have won seven games since the last week in October, and they've covered only three. Every time they faced a good offense in that stretch -- Rams, Chargers, Seahawks -- they lost outright. Sorry, Patrick Mahomes, your time will come, but it’s not now. Super Bowl appearance No. 9 for Tom Brady is coming, whether we like it or not. __Props__: [Rams vs. Saints](https://www.betchicago.com/best-prop-bets-rams-saints-nfc-championship-game-jan-20) | [Patriots vs. Chiefs](https://www.betchicago.com/best-prop-bets-patriots-chiefs-afc-championship-game-jan-20) # Joe Rodgers ## Rams +3.5 at Saints / lean to UNDER 57 This is going to be the tighter of game of the conference championship round, so I'll take the points. When these teams played in New Orleans [earlier in the season](http://www.espn.com/nfl/game?gameId=401030855), the Rams were 2-point favorites, and the 5.5-point swing from then to now screams value. What have the Saints done of late to deserve it? They needed a fake punt and dropped pass late to beat the Eagles, and Drew Brees' arm strength has gotten weaker since Thanksgiving, the last time I have been impressed with the Saints offense. Since the previous matchup, the Rams have CB Aqib Talib back and a rejuvenated C.J. Anderson to complement Todd Gurley in the running game. With Sheldon Rankins (Achilles) out on the Saints d-line, New Orleans' strong rush defense takes a big hit, and the Rams will control the time of possession battle this time around in a tight, lower-scoring game. ## Chiefs -3 vs. Patriots The Patriots are 3-5 straight up and against the spread this year on the road, losing to five non-playoff teams -- the Jaguars, Lions, Titans, Dolphins and Steelers. The Patriots are averaging about 12 fewer points on the road compared to at home and have several betting trends going against them on Sunday. Kansas City has a great matchup speed-wise vs. a slower Patriots unit that plays man coverage at the NFL's highest rate. I expect Patrick Mahomes to make the plays he missed in Week 6 and the Chiefs defense to do just enough to get the win and cover, which is how Westgate oddsmakers and sharps (moneyline) also see the game ending. __Trends__: [Ominous signs for Patriots](https://www.betchicago.com/nfl-playoffs-2019-betting-lines-ats-trends-picks-patriots-chiefs-rams-saints) # Marcus DiNitto ## Saints -3 (-120) vs. Rams The Saints’ defense is measurably better than the Rams’, and when focusing the metrics on the second half of the season, the difference becomes even more pronounced. Since Week 9, the only team to score more than 17 points against New Orleans in a meaningful game was Pittsburgh in Week 16. You may hear some pundits pointing out that the Sean Payton/Drew Brees combo is just 2-4 ATS at home in the playoffs, but in none of these games had they been asked to lay less than 4 points, and they’re 6-0 straight up in the postseason in the Superdome. The Saints get it done at home again Sunday, and I’m laying the field goal plus the juice. ## Chiefs -3 vs. Patriots Must be nice being New England, rarely having to go on the road in the postseason. That changes Sunday, when they’ll be in one of the most hostile environments in the NFL. Their road struggles this season are well-documented, and the most recent away playoff game for the Pats was in 2016, when they lost at Denver in the AFC Championship. In fact, they’re 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five road playoffs games, so forget about a Patriots mystique when they’re not in Foxborough. This season’s home/road splits illustrate [stark differences](https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2019/01/16/why-is-kansas-city-chiefs-defense-so-much-better-at-arrowhead-stadium/) for both teams, and in the nine games played at Arrowhead this season, the maligned Chiefs defense has allowed an average of 17.4 points. K.C. -3 is the play. __Championship Sunday pick 6 contest__: [Free to enter, win cool merch](https://betchicago.chalkline.com/games/sunday-nfl-challenge)