The 2019 season has plenty of uncertainty for new Ohio State head coach Ryan Day, but oddsmakers haven't been quick to fade the Buckeyes in the futures market. Despite having a new coach, new coordinators, an unproven QB, four returning offensive starters, and ranking 62nd overall in returning production, Ohio State has the fourth-shortest national championship odds (12/1) at FanDuel and a regular season win total of 10.5. The Buckeyes are the even-money favorites to win the Big Ten at the New Jersey sportsbook and new QB Justin Fields is 9/1 to win the Heisman Trophy. Ohio State has the recruiting talent to reload, but the lack of proven personnel and a downtrodden defense has us looking elsewhere in the Big Ten futures market. Even with Dwayne Haskins leading the team last season, Ohio State had a second-order win total of 10.9, meaning based on the advanced statistics the Buckeyes should have lost more games than they did. Most of that is based on an Ohio State defense that was its worst scoring D since 1999 despite having the best field position of any unit in the country. Ohio State's defense ranked 62nd nationally in S&P+ passing and was 115th in IsoPPP, an explosiveness metric. The Buckeyes also allowed 4.5 yards per carry and 25.5 points per game. __Big Ten win totals and picks:__ [Northwestern](https://www.betchicago.com/northwestern-win-total-2019-predictions-betting-point-spreads) | [Wisconsin](https://www.betchicago.com/wisconsin-season-win-total-picks-2019-badgers-schedule-big-ten) | [Michigan](https://www.betchicago.com/michigan-season-win-total-betting-predictions-wolverines-ats-odds) | [Minnesota](https://www.betchicago.com/minnesota-season-win-total-betting-predictions-gophers-odds) | [Michigan State](https://www.betchicago.com/2019-college-football-betting-win-totals-michigan-state) | [Purdue](https://www.betchicago.com/purdue-season-win-total-betting-odds-schedule-predictions) The good news is, the Buckeyes return nine defensive starters and 85% of their defensive production. Bad news is, they're not going to return to being a top-20 unit, and teams that can block well up front will be able to find holes downfield. Defensive lineman Chase Young and safety Jordan Fuller are upperclassmen Ohio State's defensive coordinators Jeff Hafley and Greg Mattison will rely on. The d-line is arguably Ohio State's best unit as [Eleven Warriors](https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2019/07/105071/state-of-the-position-rankings-each-of-ohio-states-units) points out, but linebackers could be the worst. The offensive line will also be a point of emphasis for Day after losing four starters. The group is filled with blue-chip prospects, however. They'll have the duty to protect Fields in the pocket and on the ground. Unlike Haskins, Fields is a mobile quarterback expected to take the Ohio State running game, along with RB J.K. Dobbins to the next level. How Fields responds to adversity for the first time in his college career will be interesting to watch. He's been criticized for his incompetence at Georgia, and completed 4-of-13 for 131 yards in Ohio State’s spring game, with 98 coming on one pass. Fields has a security blanket in K.J. Hill out wide and Austin Mack returns after his 2018 season was cut short by injury. Parris Campbell, Johnnie Dixon, and Terry McLaurin are gone, but Chris Olave showed his upside late last season with 127 yards and three touchdowns against Michigan and Northwestern. Like last season, Ohio State has a favorable non-conference schedule and winnable Big Ten road dates. The Buckeyes have shown they are prone to letdown spots on the road, and a date with Indiana in Week 3 and Nebraska on Sept. 28 shouldn't be taken lightly. ## 2019 Ohio State football S&P+ rankings 2019 S&P+: 24.3 2019 S&P+ rank: No. 7 overall | No. 1 Big Ten 2019 offense rank: No. 6 2019 defense rank: No. 14 Final 2018 S&P+: 24.1; No. 6 overall | No. 1 Big Ten 2018 record: 13-1 overall (6-8 ATS), 8-1 in Big Ten, 11-1 regular season 2018 second-order wins: 10.9 (-2.1) The preseason S&P+ ratings take into consideration recruiting, returning production and recent history to create a power rating for all 130 teams. Returning production makes up a vast majority of the preseason S&P+ projections, which are informed overall by tempo- and opponent-adjusted components of the five factors of college football: Efficiency, explosiveness, field position and finishing drives. Per creator Bill Connelly, the fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates. [Click here](https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/10/13/16457830/college-football-advanced-stats-analytics-rankings) to learn more about S&P+. Ohio State's preseason S&P+ power rating is 24.3, which means the Buckeyes are 24.3 points better than an average team (power-rated at zero) on a neutral field. __MORE:__ [College football win totals and picks](https://www.betchicago.com/college-football-win-totals-picks-2019-season) | [Heisman Trophy betting update](https://www.betchicago.com/2019-heisman-trophy-betting-report-shea-patterson-sam-ehlinger) ## 2019 Ohio State football schedule, predictions Projections provided by S&P+ <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table { font-size: 12px; border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; } .tableizer-table td { padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #CCC; } .tableizer-table th { background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold; } </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <thead><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>2019 outlook</th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>&nbsp;</th></tr></thead><tbody> <tr><td>Proj. Rk</td><td>7</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Proj. Off. Rk</td><td>6</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Proj. Def. Rk</td><td>14</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Projected Wins</td><td>9.8</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Proj. Wins (+7 PPG)</td><td>10.7</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Proj. Wins (-7 PPG)</td><td>8.5</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Opponent (Proj. Rk)</td><td>Date</td><td>Proj. Margin</td><td>Win Prob.</td></tr> <tr><td>FAU (79)</td><td>31-Aug</td><td>28.1</td><td>95%</td></tr> <tr><td>Cincinnati (44)</td><td>7-Sep</td><td>19.7</td><td>87%</td></tr> <tr><td>at Indiana (46)</td><td>14-Sep</td><td>15.4</td><td>81%</td></tr> <tr><td>Miami OH (93)</td><td>21-Sep</td><td>31.7</td><td>97%</td></tr> <tr><td>at Nebraska (45)</td><td>28-Sep</td><td>15.2</td><td>81%</td></tr> <tr><td>Michigan St (23)</td><td>5-Oct</td><td>14.2</td><td>79%</td></tr> <tr><td>at NW (57)</td><td>18-Oct</td><td>17.6</td><td>84%</td></tr> <tr><td>Wisconsin (11)</td><td>26-Oct</td><td>6.7</td><td>65%</td></tr> <tr><td>Maryland (67)</td><td>9-Nov</td><td>24.7</td><td>92%</td></tr> <tr><td>at Rutgers (108)</td><td>16-Nov</td><td>34.1</td><td>98%</td></tr> <tr><td>Penn St (14)</td><td>23-Nov</td><td>8.4</td><td>69%</td></tr> <tr><td>at Michigan (9)</td><td>30-Nov</td><td>0.2</td><td>51%</td></tr> </tbody></table> __MORE:__ [Odds to make 2019 College Football Playoff](https://www.betchicago.com/odds-2019-college-football-playoff-betting-notre-dame) | [No, Texas football isn't back](https://www.betchicago.com/texas-longhorns-football-betting-point-spreads-win-total) ## Betting Ohio State football in 2019 Barring injuries, Ohio State is expected to be favored in all but one of its games for the upcoming season. The lone game is "The Game," of course, as oddsmakers have installed Michigan as a 2.5-point home favorite over the Buckeyes on Nov. 30 despite losing 14 of the last 15 meetings. Could this be the year? Our power ratings actually have Michigan just under a 5-point favorite in "The Game," but S&P+ has the rivalry game closer to a coin-flip. S&P+ also has the Buckeyes as 15.2 points better than Nebraska in Lincoln, whereas most sportsbooks' Games of the Year point spread are near Ohio State -7. Same goes for a date with Northwestern (S&P+: OSU -17.6, spread: OSU -13). Projections for games against Penn State (S&P+: OSU-8.4, spread: OSU -9.5), Wisconsin (S&P+: OSU -6.7, spread: OSU -9), and Michigan State (S&P+: OSU -14.2, spread: OSU -14) are close to what current sportsbooks are offering. As S&P+ points out, Ohio State's upside is an 11-win season and its very plausible the Buckeyes reach OVER 10.5 wins this season, but as we alluded to earlier, there is just too many unknowns to over-adjust our power ratings that currently has Ohio State at 9.7 wins. __Ohio State best bet:__ UNDER 10.5 wins and miss College Football Playoff __MORE:__ [Notre Dame's win total likely hinges on final game of season](https://www.betchicago.com/notre-dame-2019-betting-point-spreads-win-total)