Manny Pacquiao has been bet from an underdog to the favorite for Saturday night’s WBA welterweight title bout against the undefeated Keith Thurman (Fox PPV, 8 p.m. CT). In April, William Hill U.S. opened the fight Pacquiao +120 / Thurman -140, but with 66% of the betting slips and 55% of money wagered on the Filipino legend as of earlier this week, the book was dealing Pacquiao -150/Thurman +130. Per Pro Boxing Odds’ [scan](https://www.proboxingodds.com/) of the betting market as of Friday morning, Pacquiao is priced as high as -189, while underdog bettors can find Thurman in the +150 range. The early move on Pacquiao is not surprising, as it’s typical of wagering patterns for big prize fights. Public money usually comes in first on the underdog and/or popular fighter – in this case, Manny fit both descriptions. Wiseguys are known to swoop in on the other side when they feel like the price is right. When the sharp money shows up as we approach fight time, the betting line is bound to adjust back to Thurman. Some of the late money will come from Thurman himself, as he said during a Wednesday press conference that he plans to place bets on himself to knock Pacquiao out in the first, second and seventh rounds. At MGM Grand in Las Vegas, where the fight will take place, Thurman by first- or second-round KO is priced at 60/1 and a seventh-round KO by Thurman is 40/1, [per ESPN’s Dan Rafael](https://www.espn.com/boxing/story/_/id/27212153/unbeaten-thurman-confident-ko-vs-manny). "In boxing we really don't have a knockout bonus. If 'One Time' Thurman gets a first-round knockout somebody's got to pay me. So at least the MGM Grand can pay me,” Thurman said. “(Making the bets is) fun, it's playful, but it's a little bit part of my strategy. I don't recommend it for every fighter, but I like it. Don't be surprised if Manny Pacquiao goes night, night." While Pacquiao (61-7-2, 39 KOs) has been sharp in his two most recent outings (a unanimous-decision win over Adrian Broner in January and a seventh-round TKO of Lucas Matthysse last July), Thurman is the toughest opponent he’s faced since losing to Floyd Mayweather in 2015. At 40-years-old, Pacman is obviously well past his prime and some fight observers [wonder if he’s making a mistake](https://www.newyorker.com/sports/sporting-scene/manny-pacquiao-might-be-making-a-terrible-mistake) by stepping into the ring with the 30-year-old Thurman (29-0, 22 KOs). Pacquiao, though, still has mad skills, and a Ring Magazine survey of boxing experts found an [even split](https://www.ringtv.com/571725-fight-picks-manny-pacquiao-vs-keith-thurman/) of predictions – 11 siding with Manny, 11 for Thurman. While the overwhelming majority of Ring’s respondents see this fight going the distance, bettors have to a pay a hefty price for that outcome. At the Westgate SuperBook, OVER 11.5 rounds is listed at -360, with the UNDER offered at +280. Our preferred play is Thurman by decision at 2/1 odds. While he calls himself “One Time” for his propensity to knock guys out, five of his last six bouts have gone the distance, and we see Pacquiao hanging in until the end. ## Pacquiao vs. Thurman method of victory prop Pacquiao by decision +150 Pacquiao by KO +450 Thurman by decision +200 Thurman by KO +600 Draw +1000 ## Pacquiao to win in certain round Rd 1: 80/1 Rd 2: 60/1 Rd 3: 50/1 Rd 4: 50/1 Rd 5: 40/1 Rd 6: 40/1 Rd 7: 40/1 Rd 8: 40/1 Rd 9: 40/1 Rd 10: 40/1 Rd 11: 40/1 Rd 12: 50/1 ## Thurman to win in certain round Rd 1: 80/1 Rd 2: 60/1 Rd 3: 60/1 Rd 4: 50/1 Rd 5: 50/1 Rd 6: 50/1 Rd 7: 50/1 Rd 8: 50/1 Rd 9: 50/1 Rd 10: 50/1 Rd 11: 50/1 Rd 12: 60/1 ## Pacquiao-Thurman undercard odds Mike LEE +900 Caleb PLANT - 1600 Juan Carlos PAYANO +1000 Luis NERY - 2000 Sergey LIPINETS - 1400 John MOLINA Jr +800 Omar FIGUEROA Jr +350 Yordenis UGAS - 450 __Bookmark us__: [Boxing betting coverage](https://www.betchicago.com/boxing)