Breaking down Patrick Kane's NHL award future odds
Breaking down Patrick Kane's NHL award future odds
Blackhawks superstar Patrick Kane has 25 points in his last 10 games and he's playing his way into contention for several NHL awards with increasingly interesting futures odds available.
Chicago Blackhawks wing Patrick Kane is on an absolute tear in his last 10 games, with an astonishing 25 points to bring his season total to 76 through 52 games. Kane is creeping into the conversation for several postseason NHL awards and his futures odds are starting to look appealing in what may go down as a career year. Kane is tied for second in the league in goals, tied for second in the league in points and the last-place Blackhawks would be by far the worst team in the NHL without him. So it’s time to start giving serious consideration to the possibility that he could win the Art Ross Trophy (most points), the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy (most goals) or even the Hart Memorial Trophy for league MVP. __Play to win:__ [Enter our free contests. Win cool merch and even cash!](https://betchicago.chalkline.com/) BetOnline.ag [listed](https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/nhl-player-futures) Kane at 5/1 to win the Ross and 10/1 each to win the Richard or the Hart on Tuesday, all despite the fact that the Blackhawks are now off the board to win the NHL Central and 150/1 to win the Stanley Cup while clinging to meager playoff hopes with 49 points in 53 games. And that’s a true testament to just how good Kane has been. But how realistic is it that he wins any of these three awards? Let’s break down his chances. __Patrick Kane’s chances to win the Art Ross Trophy__ Kane’s recent scoring explosion has rocketed him up the NHL leaders list, where he’s now tied with Oilers center Connor McDavid (last year’s Ross winner) for second in points with 76. Only Lightning wing Nikita Kucherov has more points with 80 points in 52 games. Both the Oilers and Lightning have one additional game left on their schedule over the Blackhawks (both Kane and McDavid have missed one game this year), so that puts Kane at a slight disadvantage with time running out in the season. But there are statistical indicators that suggest Kane could run them down if he stays even reasonably hot. McDavid (5/2) has 31 goals this season and is shooting an inflated 18.6 percent that suggests he could be subject to regression down the stretch. He entered the season shooting just 13.8 percent for his career and hadn’t previously shot better than 15.2 percent for a single season. __More:__ [Blackhawks must be solutions-oriented in second half](https://www.betchicago.com/chicago-blackhawks-solutions-oriented-second-half) If the goals taper off, it limits McDavid’s production potential and puts him in a position where his pace could slow down. Meanwhile, Kucherov’s pace has already started to slow after an absurd start to the season. He’s registered five points in his last seven games, which is respectable but makes him look mortal after racking up multi-point games in 10 of 13 prior to that. The Lightning have been sensational this year, but the peripherals don’t think that they can continue taking 76.9 percent of available points. As they level off, Kucherov (5/4) is going to be subject to some hard times. Which is why this is Kane’s best chance at winning a major award. __Patrick Kane’s chances to win the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy__ Alex Ovechkin (2/5) leads the league with 37 goals this year and Kane is in a cluster with McDavid (10/1), John Tavares (10/1), and Jeff Skinner (12/1) with 31 behind Ovechkin. That’s a sizable lead and the Capitals star has won five of the last six Richard Trophies. However, Ovechkin is shooting an unusually high percentage even by his lofty standards. He’s seen 18.6 percent of his shots on goal find the back of the net, which is a 27 percent increase over his career-high of 14.6 percent. As mentioned, McDavid has also been pretty fortunate with the number of shots he’s had go in compared to career averages and Jeff Skinner is in the same boat. Tavares is slightly beneath his career-high of 17.3 percent for a season with a 16.7 shooting percentage and Kane’s 14.7 percent outpaces his career average of 12.2 but would only be his third-best shooting season ever. This is more of a longshot with a six-goal lead to make up in 29 games (Ovechkin also has an extra game), but Kane has a better shot to run him down than anybody else in the field. __Patrick Kane’s chances to win the Hart Memorial Trophy__ Without Kane, the Blackhawks would be a mess. He’s getting 22:13 of ice time a night, which is a career-high by nearly a minute and is 2:20 above his career average. It often feels like he double-shifts for just about every third period if the Blackhawks still have a chance to win. Even with so many other great players having great seasons, it’d be hard to argue against Kane on those merits alone. Unfortunately for Kane, he’ll need the Blackhawks to make the playoffs to be realistically considered and that’s where the odds fall apart. Hockey Reference’s [model](https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.fcgi) gives Chicago a 5.2 percent chance of making the playoffs while The Athletic NHL analytics guru Dom Luszczyszyn’s [model](https://theathletic.com/565136/2019/02/05/2018-19-nhl-point-projections-and-playoff-probabilities-updated-daily/) gives them a seven percent chance of getting in. With Kane getting 10/1 odds, you can’t afford to back him for MVP because you can’t afford to back the Blackhawks. If the Blackhawks make the postseason by some miracle, there’s a strong chance it will be on the back of Kane continuing his absurd production of the last month. Which would mean he’s got a solid chance at taking all three of these awards home. Without that guarantee, betting Kane to win the Art Ross Trophy is where the value is at. __Read on:__ [Collin Delia the best Blackhawks goalie option regardless of the route their season takes](https://www.betchicago.com/collin-delia-best-blackhawks-goalie-option)2019-02-05T23:19:06.545Z2019-02-05T16:00-07:00