The UNDER has been a profitable bet for both pitchers taking the mound Monday at Wrigley Field as the Reds and Cubs begin a three-game series (7:05 p.m. CT). With a 2.5-game lead in the NL Central, Chicago (50-43) opened as a -128 betting favorite over Cincinnati (42-48) before the market adjusted to Cubs -135 as of Monday morning. The total sits at 9.5, with the wind forecasted to be blowing out to center. Reds starter Luis Castillo (8-3, 2.29 ERA) is in the midst of a breakout season, earning an All-Star bid, joining the Cy Young conversation with 18/1 odds and helping the Reds become the best UNDER bet in baseball (54-32-4). The UNDER is 13-5 in Castillo's starts this year and 9-2 in his last 11 on the road. Castillo, who has been [fortunate with a](https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15689&position=P) .224 BABIP, has held the Cubs to just three runs in 12 1/3 innings pitched. Chicago batters are hitting just .122 off Castillo with 12 strikeouts this season. __MLB trade deadline:__ [Five outside-the-box targets the Cubs should consider](https://www.betchicago.com/mlb-trade-deadline-five-targets-cubs) Kyle Hendricks (7-7, 3.49 ERA) has been one of the best UNDER pitchers in baseball during the course of his career. Since making his big-league debut in 2014, Hendricks has made the most UNDER money among all starters (+$3,110 on $100 wagers in each start). Lance Lynn is a distant second at +$2,592 during that span. In the second half of the season at home, Hendricks' UNDER trend becomes more impressive with a 27-9-2 career mark. The right-hander has been much better at home than on the road this season (1.65 vs. 5.44 ERA) and is looking to continue his success against the Reds. Hendricks has a 2.57 ERA in 14 innings pitched against the Reds this season and is 6-2 with a 3.31 ERA in 15 career starts vs. Cincinnati. Hendricks is making his third start since coming off the IL with a shoulder injury but hasn't made it past five innings since June 9. Should another short outing arise, the Cubs bullpen will be ready and rested. According to [The Quant Edge](https://www.thequantedge.com/bullpen/), the Cubs are the third-most rested bullpen in the league over the past three games. Cincinnati's pen isn't as rested, but it does have the second-best xFIP (3.85) in the majors since May 1. Reds relievers have been able to keep games close and are one of the reasons the Reds are 28-17 on the run line away from home this season. Cincy is +1.5 (-165) on the run line at multiple sportsbooks for Monday's game in Chicago. __MLB advanced stats glossary:__ [How to use sabermetrics in sports betting](https://www.betchicago.com/mlb-advanced-stats-glossary-sports-betting) ## Reds at Cubs betting trends • Cubs are 45-29 against division teams with a worse record after the All-Star break since 2017 (28-16 at home). • Cubs are 46-20 in their last 66 home games vs. a right-handed starter. • UNDER is 13-4 in Hendricks' last 17 starts vs. a team with a losing record. • Reds are 1-6 in their last seven road games __MORE:__ [Betting results from the first half](https://www.betchicago.com/2019-mlb-betting-results-trends-white-sox-cubs-first-half)