Super Bowl 53 props: Can Harper or Machado top Brady and Goff?
Super Bowl 53 props: Can Harper or Machado top Brady and Goff?
If there's a benefit to the frozen market of MLB free agency, it's that we have the chance at a fun cross-sport Super Bowl bet involving Manny Machado and Bryce Harper.
If there's a benefit to the frozen market of MLB free agency, it's that we have the chance at a fun cross-sport Super Bowl bet involving Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. Over at [BetOnline](https://www.betonline.ag/), two props were posted this week with MLB's superstar free agents and the amount of money they'll eventually sign for. What will be the higher amount: Tom Brady passing yards or Bryce Harper's contract in millions? What will be the higher amount: Jared Goff passing yards or Manny Machado's contract in millions? Harper is expected to be the highest-paid free agent this offseason and Brady's passing yards prop is higher than Goff's. Brady's O/U is 304.5 at Westgate. Goff's is 289.5. Does either baseball player have a chance? Let's compare. ## Bryce Harper's contract vs. Tom Brady's passing yards in the Super Bowl The largest contract in terms of guaranteed money in baseball [belongs to](https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/) Giancarlo Stanton, then of the Miami Marlins. He signed a 13-year, $325-million deal to top Alex Rodriguez's $275 million contract signed in 2008. Stanton's was signed in 2015, and progression of the business should mean topping $325 million is possible, if not likely. The case for Harper is he's a 26-year-old former MVP who is in the prime of his career. This isn't like signing a 32-year-old to a long contract. The team paying the player will get plenty of his best season's rather than paying for past performance. The case against him is his inconsistency. He had a 10-WAR season in 2015 but since then has had seasons of 1.5, 4.7 and 1.3 last year. His 4.7-WAR season was cut short due to injury, limiting Harper to 111 games. The other problem with Harper reaching Brady's line of a projected 305 yards is teams aren't spending money. This isn't the place to argue about why teams aren't doing it, but when considering this bet you have to acknowledge the landscape. In the past it would be easy to say Harper would set the market and top Stanton's number. He still might, but the tough part will be getting enough years to get there. It's unlikely Harper gets a 13-year deal, especially when teams sound uneasy about going to 10 years. It's more likely Harper tops the record for average annual value, which belongs to Zack Greinke at $34.4 million. Is $35 million for 10 years impossible? No. But when handicapping this, I'd ballpark Harper for $280 million over eight years. That would top Rodriguez's deal, give Harper a record for AAV and there will be opt-outs to maximize his value with another contract. Brady averages 280 yards in his 39 career playoff games, but that number is skewed a bit by his early seasons and goes up even more in the Super Bowl. He averages 322 yards a game in the Super Bowl and 433 yards in his last three Super Bowls. That success would make Brady the bet, but those wanting to take Harper have some numbers that point to Brady's final tally falling below 304.5 and potentially even lower. Brady averaged 272 yards per game passing in the regular season, and the Rams just held Drew Brees to 249 yards at home. If Aaron Donald and the defensive line can pressure Brady, Aqib Talib and the secondary can limit Brady the same way. The Rams allowed 236 yards passing per game in the regular season. <a href="https://twitter.com/StokkeTommy/status/1089980232755380224" class="embedly-card" data-card-width="100%" data-card-controls="0">Embedded content: https://twitter.com/StokkeTommy/status/1089980232755380224</a> __More Super Bowl props:__ [National Anthem ](https://www.betchicago.com/super-bowl-national-anthem-odds-gladys-knight-prop-bet-history)| [Commercials](https://www.betchicago.com/super-bowl-53-commercial-prop-bets) | [Vegas waiting for the public](https://www.betchicago.com/super-bowl-53-prop-bets-vegas-sportsbooks-public-push) ## Manny Machado contract vs. Jared Goff passing yards in the Super Bowl Machado has the resume to suggest he should also top Stanton's record deal, but the presumption is he'll take home less than Harper in the end. Best-case scenario for Machado is Harper signing first with a non-Phillies team. If the Phillies lose out on the outfielder, they'll be desperate to outbid the White Sox and whatever other team is lurking. That could push Machado over $300 million. Worst-case scenario is the Phillies sign Harper and a pair of teams that seem fine finishing second rather than 'overpaying' in the Padres and White Sox stick with seven- or eight-year offers for $225 million. That's still a lot of money, but would be a disappointing figure overall compared to expectations and resume. Machado plays Gold Glove defense at a more premium position than Harper. He's also more consistent than Harper with four seasons above 5.5 WAR, something the outfielder has only done twice. But the narrative surrounding Machado has been different from the start, stemming from his poor postseason and comments about his lack of hustle. Based on reports, we can ballpark Machado's deal at $256 million. That would be an eight-year contract with an AAV of $32 million. That would fall well short of Goff's 289.5 line for passing yards. It's fair these two are matched up in this prop because of the wide range of results we could see. Seven times this season Goff threw for 320 or more yards, but he's failed to top 216 yards passing in five of his last seven games. Relying on the run game with C.J. Anderson and Todd Gurley has cut into Goff's production. The Patriots give up 247 passing yards per game and allowed Philip Rivers to throw for 331 in their first playoff game, but they played most of that game with the game already out of hand. Rivers threw for 111 yards in the first half when the Chargers trailed 35-7. Patrick Mahomes was held to 295 in the AFC Championship Game. With a tight contest expected, Goff's first playoff game and the overall style I expect ([as someone taking the UNDER](https://www.betchicago.com/super-bowl-53-predictions-picks-against-spread-prop-bets-patriots-rams)), I think Machado has the better chance of topping Goff than Harper does at topping Brady. <a href="https://twitter.com/StokkeTommy/status/1090027492671246337" class="embedly-card" data-card-width="100%" data-card-controls="0">Embedded content: https://twitter.com/StokkeTommy/status/1090027492671246337</a> __More Super Bowl:__ [Preview](https://www.betchicago.com/patriots-rams-super-bowl-53-betting-lines-ats-records-game-breakdown) | [$10,000 free contest ](https://betchicago.chalkline.com/games/10k-big-game-blitz)2019-02-02T22:58:30.194Z2019-02-02T16:57-06:00