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Super Bowl 54 prop bets, TEs: Historic Kittle-Kelce duel serves up receptions value

Super Bowl 54 prop bets, TEs: Historic Kittle-Kelce duel serves up receptions value

The betting market signals OVER longest reception prop value for both George Kittle and Travis Kelce in Super Bowl 54.

Eric Dewberry
Staff Writer
//images.ctfassets.net/p0ykbbcw3bn6/23tuLGLVrez8cybY1DBFnB/cd2c0cc1b9a93eec4f2923c4e9c1525d/eric-dewberry-colorpng_1cx64nq4cwll11njt96zl19jm8.png
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@eric_dewberry
Eric Dewberry is a sports analyst with previous stops at The Linemakers on Sporting News and Cox Enterprises. He owns a PhD in Communications, a drum kit, and way too many baseball cards.
Super Bowl 54 features the two best tight ends in the NFL, bar none: the Chiefs' Travis Kelce and the 49ers' George Kittle. Their upcoming matchup is arguably the most intriguing and important head-to-head battle at the position in the game's illustrious history—a position often overlooked on the NFL grandest stage. Prop bettors will find plenty of wagering options and value behind the the pair, each integral to their team's offenses. Kelce and Kittle anchor their respective passing games. Both lead their teams in targets, receptions and receiving yards this season. Including the postseason, Kelce has reeled in 1,393 yards on 110 grabs (152 targets) for Kansas City, while Kittle has snared a team-high 89 catches for 1,088 yards (113 targets) for San Francisco. According to NFL Research, this is the first Super Bowl featuring a pair of non-wide receivers tallying at least 1,000 receiving yards for the year. __Super Bowl 54 props:__ [Thousands of options](https://www.betchicago.com/super-bowl-54-props-ways-to-bet-49ers-chiefs) | [Action report](https://www.betchicago.com/super-bowl-54-props-betting-sharp-action-odds) | [Cross-sport faves](https://www.betchicago.com/super-bowl-54-prop-bets-cross-sport) Both Kittle and Kelce offer value to win Super Bowl MVP as a tight end for the first time in history. The market is fairly bullish, too. Both opened +1600 odds at Westgate LV SuperBook to nab the game's top player honor last week, tied as fourth choice among betting options. Updated numbers over the weekend see Kittle at +1800 and Kelce +2000 odds. Below are a pair of our favorite prop picks involving the two best tight ends in football for Super Bowl 54. ## Market signals OVER longest receptions __Longest reception by:__ Travis Kelce, OVER 21.5, -110 __Longest Reception by:__ George Kittle, OVER 27.5, -110 __Pick analysis:__ The OVER is by far the [most popular Super Bowl 54 pick](https://www.betchicago.com/super-bowl-54-betting-over-under) in early trading, the total reaching as high as 55 after a 51.5 opening line offshore last week. The number sits at 54.5 as of this publication on Sunday afternoon. The figure obviously anticipates a lot of scoring between the Chiefs and 49ers, but it also signals both Kelce and Kittle will likely pick up at least one huge gain on a pass reception. The number of yards each tally on a single play goes up substansially when the betting total is higher than normal. The Chiefs average total is 52.1 points with Patrick Mahomes under center in his career. When the number closes north of this, Kelce owns a longest reception average of 26.3 yards, as opposed to 19.9 for a lower figure. Only five of the former matchups have come against passing defenses allowing fewer than 235 yards per game. Kelce still managed to go OVER 21.5 in three games with a 25.2 average. San Francisco enters the top passing defense in the league at 173.8 yards. Kittle sees his big play productivity go up as well behind a steep betting total. With quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo as starter, the 49ers average O/U is 45.6. When the total is north of this threshold, Kittle's longest reception average equals 29.8 versus 17.9 with a lesser number. ## Kelce catches fewer in tightly-priced matchups __Total receptions by:__ Travis Kelce, UNDER 6.5, -110 __Pick analysis:__ This wager is popular among sharp bettors. Not only is Kelce facing off against the top passing defense in the league, but similar past market conditions show the All-Pro tight end doesn't reel in a high number of catches in expected close contests. Behind Mahomes, Kelce has played in seven games with a betting line between field goals. He's caught seven passes or more in two, averaging 4.4 overall. His target average is 8.7. ## More Kittle, Kelce prop bet options and odds at SuperBook: __Total receiving yards by:__ George Kittle, 73.5, -110 __Total receiving yards by:__ Travis Kelce, 75.5, -110 __Total receptions by:__ George Kittle, 5.5, -120/EVEN __Total receptions by:__ George Kittle, 6.5, -110 __Will George Kittle score a TD:__ Yes/No, +140/-160 __Will Travis Kelce score a TD:__ Yes/No, +120/-140 *This story was compiled with the help of [queries](https://sportsdatabase.com/) performed at SportsDatabase.* __MORE:__ [NFL betting](https://www.betchicago.com/nfl-betting)
2020-01-26T21:02:09.007Z2020-01-26T03:45-05:00
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