After firing his third round of 65 or lower for the week on Saturday, Rickie Fowler will enter the final round with a four-shot lead and is the prohibitive betting favorite in the latest 2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open odds. And despite being one of the game’s biggest stars and the sizable lead, there’s surprising value to bet Fowler on Sunday. Fowler is at 20-under for the tournament and is getting -250 odds entering the final round [according to](https://www.bovada.lv/sports/golf) Bovada.lv. Matt Kuchar is in second at 16-under and he’s tied with Justin Thomas (15-under) as the second betting favorite at +600. __Play to win:__ [Enter our free Super Bowl contest for a chance to win $10,000!](https://betchicago.chalkline.com/) Every other player in the field is at least six strokes back and is getting +5000 odds or greater to win the tournament. So it’s a little curious that Fowler’s getting such a good price. TPC Scottsdale has suited his eye well in the last three years. Fowler finished second there in 2016 after losing to Hideki Matsuyama in a playoff, finished fourth in 2017 and finished 11th last year at the Waste Management Open. For comparison’s sake, Justin Rose [led by three shots](https://www.betchicago.com/farmers-insurance-open-odds-justin-rose-final-round) last week at the Farmer’s Insurance Open and was the -300 favorite entering the final round with similarly-talented competitors chasing in Adam Scott and Jon Rahm. So Rose’s lead was a shot smaller and he didn’t have the same course history working in his favor but was still considered a bigger favorite. His status as the No. 1 player in the world and his recent success was certainly a factor, but it was still statistically more probable for Rose to blow his lead than for Fowler to blow his on Sunday. The predictive model at Data Golf gave Rose a 72.6 percent chance to close the deal while Fowler has a 78.7 percent chance to win [according to](https://datagolf.ca/live-predictive-model/) the strokes-gained formula. __Looking back:__ [Pre-tournament Waste Management Phoenix Open odds](https://www.betchicago.com/waste-management-phoenix-open-odds-matsuyama-woodland-mickelson) Which means he’s an incredible value with -250 odds that imply a 71.4 percent chance to win. Even if memories of Fowler pulling two shots into the water on the 17th hole back in 2016 (one in regulation and one in the playoff) to lose to Matsuyama linger, he didn’t start that round with a four-shot lead. In fact, he matched Matsuyama with a 67 on that day and responded with a clutch birdie on the 18th in regulation to force the playoff. Nerves or not, that four-stroke lead is too large to overlook. Fowler has birdied No. 17 in all three rounds so far and that sort of a cushion would provide him with the option of hitting a mid-iron coming in on Sunday if he’s still in control on that 17th tee box. The predictive model gives Kuchar a 9.4 percent chance of running Fowler down and Thomas an 8.6 percent chance, which fall well short of of the 14.3 percent implied odds of +600. Nobody else in the field provides even close to as much value as Fowler. So bet the frontrunner on Sunday and take advantage of the surprising value for a four-shot, 54-hole leader. Here is the complete odds board entering the final round of the Waste Management Open. ## Waste Management Phoenix Open odds entering final round *Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv* Rickie Fowler -250 Justin Thomas +600 Matt Kuchar +600 Branden Grace +5000 Byeong-Hun An +5000 Gary Woodland +5000 Bubba Watson +8000 Cameron Smith +25000 Harold Varner +30000 Martin Laird +30000 Trey Mullinax +30000 Jon Rahm +40000 Chez Reavie +50000 Chris Stroud +50000 Jason Kokrak +50000 Sung-Jae Im +50000 Charley Hoffman +75000 J.B. Holmes +75000 Ollie Schniederjans +75000 Tom Hoge +75000 Brandon Harkins +100000 Chesson Hadley +100000 Denny McCarthy +100000 Hideki Matsuyama +100000 Jhonattan Vegas +100000 Nick Watney +100000 Russell Henley +100000 Russell Knox +100000 Webb Simpson +100000 Xander Schauffele +100000 __Read on:__ [Matt Kuchar an enticing 2019 major championship darkhorse](https://www.betchicago.com/matt-kuchar-2019-major-championship-odds)