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XFL Week 1 betting report: Oddsmakers navigate unique handicapping challenge

XFL Week 1 betting report: Oddsmakers navigate unique handicapping challenge

The highly anticipated XFL reboot takes center stage this weekend and oddsmakers are just as curious about how America’s newest professional football league will play out as bettors are.

Mike Roselli
Staff Writer
//images.ctfassets.net/p0ykbbcw3bn6/7b8fatnt0savYXQpGjUFZX/00e35d26bfd9811ce1d5a2a0dbf573cd/14344275_10104074638428869_4255770574277636484_n.jpg
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@michaelroselli
Mike Roselli is a Chicago-based attorney and sports analyst. He runs "The Doggy Juice Podcast" - an analytics-driven podcast that updates listeners on state-by-state sports betting legalization and helps them find value on the betting boards.
The highly anticipated XFL reboot takes center stage this weekend – with two Saturday matchups kicking off the 10-week regular season – and oddsmakers are just as curious about how America’s newest professional football league will play out as bettors are. Football enthusiasts are about to encounter [a unique new set of rules](https://www.xfl.com/rules) that have made setting XFL point spreads and totals a unique challenge for bookmakers in the six states that allow legal betting on the upstart league. “It’s a dart throw,” DraftKings director of race and sports operations Johnny Avello told BetChicago on Friday. “We’re gonna make some major adjustments after Week 1, but this is a good starting point.” One thing’s for sure: the XFL is doing everything it can to facilitate higher-scoring, exciting games, especially as it looks to avoid the same fate as last year’s [failed](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/26957796/inside-short-unhappy-life-alliance-american-football) Alliance of American Football experiment. “The problem with the AAF was that the offenses were so horrendous,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk management Ed Salmons told BetChicago on Friday. “AAF totals started in the high 50s and by the end were in the mid 30s and no one cared.” Entering the first wave of XFL action, the lowest total on the Week 1 board at the Westgate is Saturday’s inaugural matchup between the DC Defenders and Seattle Dragons, lined at 49.5. An opening weekend filled with a healthy dose of scoring and exciting plays will go a long way towards garnering attention from the betting public early on. __Also read:__ [ESPN/ABC to discuss betting lines during XFL broadcasts](https://www.betchicago.com/xfl-betting-lines-espn-abc-broadcasts) “If you’re forward-thinking with this, it’s going to really encourage scoring," Salmons continued. "And if you have scoring and the public likes it, they’ll bet it. When you look at the AAF, if the product stinks, no one’s going to bet it. And the AAF stunk, so any people that bet that were wiseguys – you had people scalping it." Like last year with the AAF, a high percentage of early XFL betting action has come from sharp bettors picking off varying lines at a number of different sportsbooks, as oddsmakers try to balance their own action heading into Week 1. According to Salmons and Avello, there has been no shortage of arbitrage play. “It does create opportunities,” Avello said. “But that also tells you that each place is doing their own work, not relying on other places to tell them what the odds should be, and I respect that. Does that give some arbitrage opportunities for sharp bettors? Yeah, it does a little bit. But, hey, it’s early in the game, so let’s try to get it right, at least do the best job we can early and make our adjustments as we go.” One of the most interesting quicks of the XFL is its innovative extra-point rules. Instead of kicking an extra point after a touchdown, teams have the option of going for one point from the two-yard line, two points from the five-yard line, or three from the 10-yard line. Thus, unlike the NFL, where a disproportionate number of games land on 3 and 7, it remains to be seen what the key numbers will be in the XFL. “You would think 8 would be more of a key number, or 6, because I don’t know if they’re going for 1, they’re probably going for 2," Avello continued. "They’re gonna go for 3 sometimes, depending on what the score is or how far they are behind, but that’s not gonna be the norm.” Salmons shares a similar sentiment: “It’s hard to think that anything right now is a key number. Absolutely nothing like the NFL.” Regardless of how the first week goes, the XFL is lining up the deck in its favor. Games will be featured on major TV networks (ABC, ESPN and FOX) and by all indications, the league's [financial backing](https://www.foxbusiness.com/sports/vince-mcmahon-xfl-investment-business) is sound and ready to withstand whatever early hurdles it encounters. Commissioner Oliver Luck (Andrew's dad) is a proven leader who was instrumental in expanding the NFL's European presence. But only time will tell if the league suffers the same fate as the AAF or the 2001 version of the XFL. “They have everything in place to make this thing work,” Salmons postulated. “Now the product has to be good. Hopefully it takes off.” ## Updated XFL Week 1 betting lines Seattle Dragons at DC Defenders (-8, 49.5) Los Angeles Wildcats at Houston Roughnecks (-6.5, 50) Tampa Bay Vipers (-3, 51.5) at New York Guardians St. Louis Battlehawks at Dallas Renegades (-9.5, 52) __MORE:__ [XFL futures odds](https://www.betchicago.com/xfl-odds-week-1-point-spreads-betting)
2020-02-08T03:16:44.173Z2020-02-07T21:10-06:00
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      <div><div><h3>Download the BetChicago app</h3><p>The latest version of the BetChicago app is available for download, and once you take that step, you’ll be a tap away from the most important news driving the betting market, research and analysis from our editorial team and a line into the knowledge and opinion of some of the country’s biggest and best oddsmakers. </p><p>You’ll also get the up-to-date futures odds, point spreads, moneylines and totals, as well as scores, schedules, matchups and more. </p><p>The app gives you quick access to our <a href="https://betchicago.chalkline.com/">free-to-play contests</a> that offer the chance to win cash and other great prizes. </p><p>Also, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/userregistration">create a BetChicago account</a> to receive email updates and be able to customize notifications, save stories, select your favorite teams and players and more. Download the BetChicago app at<a href="https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/betchicago/id1404462108?mt=8"> iTunes</a> or <a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.betchicago.app&hl=en_UShttps://itunes.apple.com/us/app/betchicago/id1404462108?mt=8">Google Play</a> today.</p></div></div>
      <div><p>As legalized sports betting expands, so too are the wagering options available to gamblers. Sportsbooks are getting more and more creative in what they’re posting on their oddsboards. While traditional pre-event bets – such as point spreads, moneylines and totals – remain popular, live betting is become a larger part of the sports betting experience.  Also, prop bets aren’t just for the Super Bowl anymore. In fact, there are props to wager on for practically any sporting event around the world.</p><p>Whether it’s on the <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/nfl-betting">NFL</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/college-football-betting">college football</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/mlb-betting/home">MLB</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/nba-betting">NBA</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/ncaa-basketball-betting">NCAA basketball</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/nhl-betting">NHL</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/soccer-betting">soccer</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/nascar-betting">NASCAR</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/ufc-betting">UFC</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/boxing">boxing</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/horse-racing-odds">horse racing</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/tennis-odds">tennis</a>, entertainment or eSports, it’s difficult to win long term betting on sports. That’s why it’s important to read up on the news that impacts the markets, dig deep into advanced statistics and hear from oddsmakers about how and why lines are moving.</p><p>Here at BetChicago, we follow sports betting from a national and even international perspective, but we put a special emphasis on Chicago, Illinois and the Midwest region. That means, for example, if you’re interested in where the futures odds of the <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/bears-betting">Bears</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/cubs-betting-odds">Cubs</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/white-sox-betting-odds">White Sox</a>, <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/bulls-betting-odds">Bulls</a> and <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/blackhawks-betting-odds">Blackhawks</a> stand, look no further. If you want insight and analysis about the betting lines for <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/big-ten-football-betting-odds">Big Ten football</a> or <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/big-ten-college-basketball-betting-lines-odds-trends-predictions">basketball</a> or <a href="https://www.betchicago.com/notre-dame-football-odds-betting">Notre Dame</a> sports, you’re at the right place.</p></div>